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India's beleaguered ruling coalition wins respite in state votes
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By Rupak De Chowdhuri
KOLKATA (Reuters) - India's ruling Congress-led coalition overturned three decades of communist rule in the swing state of West Bengal on Friday, one of several regional poll victories that could give some respite for a...
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Trinamool Congress party leader Mamata Banerjee gestures outside her home in Kolkata, May 13, 2011.
Credit: Reuters/Danish Siddiqui
By Rupak De Chowdhuri
KOLKATA |
Fri May 13, 2011 3:13am EDT
KOLKATA (Reuters) - India's ruling Congress-led coalition overturned three decades of communist rule in the swing state of West Bengal on Friday, one of several regional poll victories that could give some respite for a beleaguered Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
The good showing for Congress may restore some political authority for the 78-year-old Singh after the country's worst ever corruption scandal has paralyzed the government for months and hit foreign investment in Asia's third-largest economy.
The results may also define how aggressively the left-of-center government moves ahead with long-awaited reforms such as raising fuel prices and a land acquisition bill for farmers and industry.
The Congress alliance led by maverick populist Mamata Banerjee was leading in 215 seats out of the 294 at stake in the West Bengal state assembly, with the communists ahead in 72 seats, TV stations said. With results almost certain not to change, the prime minister phoned Banerjee to congratulate her.
Banerjee, a 56-year-old who wears a traditional sari with bathroom slippers, lives alone with her mother and is the latest in a string of women in this traditional society, like Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, who have risen to political power.
"After 30 years, it's like a revolution," a young supporter of Banerjee's Trinamool party told NDTV, echoing views of a younger West Bengal generation which has rebelled against a moribund economy and what it sees as leftists stuck in a Cold War time warp.
The federal coalition lost in the national southern swing state of Tamil Nadu after its regional ally, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), became embroiled in the telecoms graft case that may have cost the government up to $39 billion.
But that may also be a silver lining for Congress, allowing Singh more leverage over a weakened Tamil Nadu ally.
"I would see this as a win-win situation for the Congress," said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC bank, referring to West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
The Congress coalition has also won the northeastern state of Assam and Kerala and Pondicherry in southern India, according to TV projections.
Congress may also be strengthened by the fact that the main national opposition, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, has scarcely improved on its scant presence in either West Bengal or Tamil Nadu.
Jubilant supporters thronged outside Banerjee's house in the state capital Kolkata, punching the air, dancing and shouting her name and waving their tricolor party flags. They pasted green paint on their foreheads to mark the victory.
There is talk of a cabinet reshuffle in New Delhi after the election and a push by the government to pass bills in the July parliamentary session, including one to help industry acquire land from farmers.
With neither of the main national parties, Congress and BJP, able to secure majorities in general elections, electoral power in India comes down to forging coalitions with regional allies, who often have chequered records.
The results will take the political temperature in states that jointly make up a fifth of the 545-strong lower house of parliament and will help redraw the political map ahead of federal elections in 2014.
REGIONAL CHIEFTANS HOLD SWAY
India's 28 states, with strong linguistic and cultural identities, have a high degree of autonomy and their leaders are some of the most important powerbrokers in India, often blocking policies by the federal government.
West Bengal sends 42 lawmakers to parliament and its long domination by the communists is one of the biggest reasons India's founding socialist ideas retain political currency even after two decades of market reforms.
Banerjee's Trinamool party in West Bengal is the biggest coalition ally of Congress and holds the balance of power in parliament. Her victory may force the government to be more dependent on an unpredictable parliamentary partner opposed to several key economic reforms.
Analysts say Banerjee's victory there will give her a louder voice when the government mulls raising fuel prices or cutting down subsidies -- measures that are key to keeping the fiscal deficit at the targeted 4.6 percent of GDP in 2011/12, when slowing economic growth may see a sluggish tax intake.
As the federal railway minister, Banerjee has kept fares untouched and expanded freebies. She has several times forced a deferral of decisions on raising fuel prices. Her party is also against more foreign investment in insurance.
A DMK defeat in Tamil Nadu may be a blow for the government. The regional party is the second biggest coalition ally and Singh may be forced to switch allegiance to the likely winner, the regional AIADMK party nearer to the 2014 general election.
Singh's government has been considering lifting controls on diesel and fertilizer prices and streamlining a bloated food subsidy program, but these measures are politically unpalatable given inflation is at nearly 9 percent.
Rising tax revenue from an economy powering away at close to 9 percent has long let India avoid taking hard decisions on slashing expenditure, including subsidies on food, fuel and fertilizers that supporters say are needed to protect India's half-a-billion mostly rural poor from inflation.
But growth this year is expected to slow down to 8.5 percent, weighed down by the nine rate hikes since last March effected to curb inflation.
(Additional reporting by C.J. Kuncheria and Matthias Williams in New Delhi; Writing by Alistair Scrutton; Editing by Paul de Bendern and Miral Fahmy)
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