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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Weekend Edition Australia China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam China plans escape from economic binds Reuters - Friday, October 8 Send IM Story Print By Simon Rabinovitch and Chris Buckley BEIJING - China must narrow income gaps and break through tightening resource bottlenecks to unlock the potential needed for its next stage of growth, according to proposals for the nation's next long-term development plan. The Chinese government's next five-year plan starting from 2011 will be its roadmap for an economy set to grow by about 50 percent to $7.5 trillion by 2015, powering past Japan as the world's second-biggest economy, according to a study from the State Council Development Research Centre, which advises leaders. That ascent will be tricky, even for a country that has bustled past the global financial crisis. China must overcome imbalances that have depressed domestic consumption and left the economy overly reliant on cheap exports and heavy spending on infrastructure. "The issues that will be talked about in this five-year plan are the issues that the government somehow needs to address: social inequality, inadequate provision of social services and public housing," said Vincent Chan, head of China research with Credit Suisse. The plan will be a major legacy-building effort for President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, whose time in charge of the country draws to a close from late 2012. China's economy is too driven by market forces for five-year plans to have the same rough, but iron, grip they had under Maoist socialism. But they still set priorities and can assign mandatory goals to pressure local officials, such as in the case of energy and emissions targets. The key ingredients of the plan will be settled by the ruling Communist Party's Central Committee, an elite council of some 200 full members, when it meets from October 15 to 18. The national parliament will then formally approve it early next year. Securing the energy, skilled labour and even enough farmland and clean water to secure stable growth will be major challenges for the government, according to reports from state think tanks. This plan and the next one from 2016 to 2020 will include mandatory goals to cut the amount of the chief greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, emitted for each dollar of GDP. All this will present Beijing with a daunting to-do list: reforming and liberalising resource and energy prices, easing the barriers to rural migration to cities, and increasing spending on healthcare, urbanisation and social welfare so citizens feel able to spend more and move around, say several government-sponsored studies for the plan. "In the medium- to long-term the factors constraining economic growth will mainly come from the constantly growing pressure on resources and the environment," said the recent study for the plan from the State Council Development Research Centre. A BIGGER CAKE, BETTER SLICED President Hu and Premier Wen came into office vowing to create a more balanced economy and equal society. Their record has been mixed, with growth still leaning heavily on injections of infrastructure spending, while household consumption has remained compressed. "We have to make the cake bigger, and also do a better job at dividing up the cake," Wen told a gathering of business executives last month. Although the GDP growth China achieves could well diverge from the habitually modest projections of planners, their studies underscore the range of reforms they may push to achieve growth. Researchers and analysts in Beijing are debating whether the target might be cut to 7.0 percent -- probably more a worst-case scenario than a real target. "The key here is for the government to signal its willingness to slow the growth rates in exchange for a better quality of growth," said Ken Peng, an economist with Citi in Beijing. Slower growth is probably inevitable as the Chinese economy matures after three decades of torrid expansion have left fewer productivity gains to be made. The size of the working population is also increasing more slowly. The World Bank estimates that China's potential growth -- the fastest it can achieve without causing inflation -- will be 8.4 percent over the next five years, down from 9.6 percent during the past 15 years. But even that pace is not guaranteed. Exporters face tougher times. Local governments, which stepped into the breach in a spending spree on roads and airports last year, now struggle under bigger debt loads. Something else must drive growth. "The first key challenge for the next five-year plan will be to identify new sources of GDP growth," said Kevin Lai, economist with Daiwa Capital Markets, in a research note. "New sources can come only from new frontiers, through reinforcing financial-sector reform, breaking up state monopolies, increasing energy efficiency and raising labour productivity." Economists are also looking for the government to vow to do more to distribute wealth evenly and to raise workers' incomes, a prerequisite to boosting domestic demand. For Beijing, which has so far made little progress on these long-standing goals, the plan offers a chance to catalyse action. China's National Development and Reform Commission, an agency that steers economic policy, has called that a priority. "We are convinced that during this next stage, starting from the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, these disparities will become a major barrier determining whether we can maintain high growth," said a recent preparatory study from a Commission think tank. An important test of the government's willingness to seize that chance will be whether the government leaves its ambitions in broad vows alone or spells out numerical targets, such as desired wage-to-GDP levels and housing investment plans. "If they put them down as targets, it actually puts quite a lot of pressure on local governments to achieve them," said Chan of Credit Suisse. 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