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S.Korea June inflation eases, rate view questioned
Reuters - Friday, July 2
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* June inflation slows, surprising markets
* June exports rise more than expected to record high
* Government see demand-side inflation pressures building
* Some analysts see only modest interest rate rises in 2010
By Yoo Choonsik and Kim Yeon-hee
SEOUL, July 1 - South Korean inflation eased in June, bucking market expectations and lifting bond prices, but a senior government official warned of building price pressures as private-sector demand recovered.
Official and private data released on Thursday showed the export-led manufacturing sector in Asia's fourth-largest economy was on a sustained recovery path, although the pace was moderating somewhat, while inflation posed no immediate threat.
Government bond futures prices rallied as investors took the soft inflation data as suggesting that any interest rate increases this year would be modest, and as the global equity selloff boosted the safe-haven appeal of bonds.
Bond futures prices later cut gains after a senior finance ministry official's comment on the price outlook showed economic policymakers were determined to deal with future inflation pressures well in advance.
"I think the June CPI data doesn't need to be given too much meaning because we have many other indicators of inflation building going forward," said Shin Dong-su, a fixed-income analyst at NH Investment & Securities.
The state statistics agency said the consumer price index rose 2.6 percent in June from a year earlier, down from a 2.7 percent annual gain in May and less than market expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9 percent gain.
But core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, rose for a second consecutive month to an annual 1.7 percent in June from 1.6 percent in May.
The treasury bond futures September contract <KTBc1> rose to as high as 110.67 from the previous close of 110.40 but later cut gains to end the session at 110.55.
INTEREST RATE RISE SEEN IN Q3
Analysts expect South Korea's central bank to raise rates some time in the third quarter, its first increase since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.
Convinced that a sustained recovery from the global downturn will fuel inflationary pressures, central banks in Australia, India, Malaysia, New Zealand and Taiwan have already begun to raise rates.
Yoon Jong-won, head of the finance ministry's economic policy bureau, told reporters that demand-side inflationary pressures must be just about to or have already started to build, adding the effect would appear later this year.
"The government expects inflation to come below 3 percent until September but to rise above 3 percent from October," Yoon said, adding it would be difficult for policymakers to deal with once price pressures start to accelerate.
Other economic indicators released during the day showed South Korea's export sector was faring well despite concerns that Europe's debt crisis could weigh on the global economy recovery.
Exports in June rose 32.4 percent from a year earlier to a record high, above the top end of analysts' expectations for 22.6 percent-29.0 percent growth and producing a record trade surplus and record average value per working day. [ID:nSEV000088]
A private-sector survey showed prices of manufactured products in South Korea rose for a sixth consecutive month and by the fastest monthly pace in 19 months in June, while the manufacturing sector kept expanding, though the rate of growth fell to a six-month low. [ID:nSUL000099]
South Korea's Finance Ministry had successfully persuaded the central bank earlier this year to keep interest rates at a record low. But the ministry recently shifted its stance and said policy would gradually return to pre-crisis settings. [ID:nTOE65N023]
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