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WRAPUP 2-S.Korea intervenes, warns against one-way won bets
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WRAPUP 2-S.Korea intervenes, warns against one-way won bets
Reuters - 2 hours 1 minute ago
* South Korea intervenes, warns against one-way bets
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* Foreign exchange reserves just exceed maturing debt
* February inflation unexpectedly rises on won's plunge
* Rates seen cut again next week despite higher inflation
By Lee Shin-hyung and Yoo Choonsik
SEOUL, March 3 - South Korea was spotted selling dollars for a second consecutive day on Tuesday to defend the ailing won and the finance minister warned speculators against betting that the currency would keep falling.
The won <KRW=> has slumped some 30 percent in just six months to trade at its lowest levels in 11 years, largely reflecting concerns among investors that the country's banks and other companies could struggle to refinance debt given lenders' reluctance to part with their dollars.
" are resolutely watching the foreign exchange market," Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun told reporters when asked to comment on the won. " will not continue to go in one direction forever."
Traders said the comments suggested authorities would look to defend the won from falling beyond 1,600 per dollar, a level unbroken since early 1998 during the Asian financial crisis when the country was rescued by an IMF-led bailout.
The won fell 1.5 percent in early trading to 1,593.9 before recovering when authorities were spotted by currency dealers selling dollars. It was trading at 1,555.3/6.6 per dollar at 0457 GMT, compared with Monday's domestic close <KRW=KFTC> of 1,570.3.
The plunging won inflates the burden on local companies and banks paying back foreign debt and further dents already faltering domestic demand by making imports more expensive in local currency terms.
The National Statistical Office said on Tuesday the country's annual rate of consumer price inflation picked up to 4.1 percent in February from 3.7 percent in January, far exceeding the top end of the forecast range in a Reuters poll. [ID:nSEV000636]
Analysts said the rise in inflation was due mainly to the won's average 34 percent decline against the dollar during the month from a year earlier, which more than offset the effects of sluggish domestic demand and weaker commodities prices.
RATE CUT SEEN AGAIN NEXT WEEK
They said the Bank of Korea, which slashed interest rates by a total of 3.25 percentage points since early October to a record low of 2.0 percent to lift domestic demand, would probably cut rates again next week despite the inflation data.
"Higher inflation puts pressure on domestic demand as it bites into real income. The Bank of Korea is still expected to cut interest rates next week by 25 basis points, given the economic slowdown," said Oh Suk-tae, an economist at Citigroup.
The won has been hit hard by concerns about South Korea's ability to secure sufficient dollar funding to pay back its maturing foreign debt.
Like other emerging markets, it has also been hit by heightened risk aversion among investors in the face of renewed global market turbulence.
Reflecting the broader concerns, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index <.VIX>, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, spiked 13.6 percent on Monday, heading back towards its 100-day moving average.
However, the rising index portends further weakness for the won. The Korean currency has fallen 90 percent of the time that the so-called fear gauge has risen during the past two years.
"I think the authorities believe that the economic fundamentals do not warrant a much weaker won and they are using their FX reserves to try and prevent the exchange rate from getting too far out of line with the fundamentals," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING.
But analysts and traders said South Korea would not likely aim to fight the bearish market trend and lift the won sharply higher due to the country's declining foreign exchange reserves.
Central bank data showed early on Tuesday the country's foreign reserves fell by a slight $0.2 billion during February to $201.5 billion by the end of the month, just more than the $194 billion in foreign debt falling due this year.
NEWSLINKS:
For a graphic on South Korean inflation, see: https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/KR_CPI0309.jpg
For South Korean foreign debt data, see [ID:nSEO210925] (Additional reporting by Cheon Jong-woo; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner & Kim Coghill)
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