InfoAnda - Unrest throws doubt on Jamaica turnaround

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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Photos Sitemap Unrest throws doubt on Jamaica turnaround AFP - 2 hours 58 minutes ago Send IM Story Print KINGSTON (AFP) - – Jamaica's assault on gang violence is bringing shivers for business and political leaders who thought the debt-ridden island had turned the page with an IMF bailout. While the IMF was a lightning rod for controversy in Jamaica decades ago, the island approved an austerity package with surprising ease this year, witnessing none of the protests seen in other indebted nations such as Greece. But experts' bets are off as they nervously watch the impact of Jamaica's campaign launched Sunday to capture a powerful drug kingpin wanted by the United States. At least 73 civilians have died, according to official count. "If it hadn't been for the recent events, we might have been talking about a completely different economic outlook," said Joseph Matalon, president of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica, an umbrella group of businesses. Just a week earlier, a team from the International Monetary Fund visited Jamaica and said that the island had met or even exceeded expectations set in receiving the 1.27 billion-dollar loan approved in February. The unrest "has the potential to really threaten that macroeconomic stability," Matalon said. "Whether they're foreign investors or local investors, they may not be as aggressive as they otherwise might have been." Prime Minister Bruce Golding's right-leaning government had agreed to trim the public sector and tame debt that had grown so severe over the years that the island was spending 60 percent of revenue on interest payments. He recently sold off national carrier Air Jamaica, which had wallowed in the red for years, to Caribbean Airlines of Trinidad and Tobago. Jamaica sought IMF help after a severe blow from the global financial crisis. The 2.8 million-strong island's economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2009. Jamaica's most lucrative export, aluminum ore, collapsed as global demand slipped and rival miners such as Australia benefitted from running larger facilities that make their prices more competitive. The sector that could be most at risk from the violence is also Jamaica's best known -- tourism. More than 1.8 million people flocked to the island last year for sea and sun, providing half of the island's foreign currency earnings. It is one of the few industries that has posted growth in Jamaica despite the recession. Jamaica has taken pains to point out that the violence is taking place in Kingston's slums -- even in better times a no-go zone for tourists -- and hours away from protected resorts. Ian Boxill, a professor at the University of the West Indies who has studied the tourism economy, doubted that the violence would have a long-term impact, despite the bad publicity. "There have been similar incidents in the past and the industry has recovered," he said. Even if Golding's government fell, few Jamaicans expect the opposition would scuttle the IMF package -- a sharp contrast to the 1970s when many Jamaicans charged that IMF conditions fueled social instability. Jamaicans suffered a double whammy of falling wages and inflation after that package. The IMF considered the effects a short-term adjustment, but a wave of violence overtook the island leading up to the 1980 election. "This time is quite different. In the 1970s there was a significant ideological battle, but this time I think there's a recognition fully that something needs to be done," Boxill said. Still, some Jamaicans worried that the IMF package could only heighten anxieties at a sensitive time. Curbs in public spending could hit particular firms, coloring their views of the economic reforms, said David McBean, chief executive of the CVM, one of Jamaica's main television networks and media companies. "That's the big risk going forward," he said. "It's the view of the general public." 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