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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Weekend Edition Africa Europe Latin America Middle East North America Analysts' view: Egypt's Mubarak says he won't seek re-election Reuters - Wednesday, February 2 Send IM Story Print - Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, responding to huge popular protests demanding the end of his 30-year rule, said on Tuesday he would not seek re-election in a ballot scheduled for September but would stay in office until then to respond to demands for reform. Following are analysts' views on the president's announcement. EDWARD WALKER, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO EGYPT AND ISRAEL "I think we are going to see continuing demands for his immediate ouster. I don't think that the crowd has any great sympathy for his desire to have a graceful exit. "This anger that has developed is not going to dissipate quite that quickly. "I think that we are going to see more protests and what I am hearing is that Friday is going to be an even bigger day, that they are going to run out of the mosques and they are going to go storming his residence -- which is why they are putting barbed wire up now around it." "The constitution has to be changed, the parliament really should be disbanded, and new elections called immediately for a new parliament... "This won't satisfy the protesters. It's a great victory for them, but it's not enough." "I don't think the leopard can change his spots because he doesn't think he was wrong. I mean, this is a man with a great deal of pride and he is stubborn as hell -- and that's exactly why the people down in that square want him to go away -- because they don't trust him and there is no real why they should trust him." "I don't think he can last eight months ." "I don't see eight months time in this without the entire economy of Egypt ... being tanked." "The very first thing you have to repeal the emergency law, because more than anything else that is a symbol of Mubarak." FAWAZ GERGES, PROFESSOR OF MIDDLE EASTERN POLITICS, LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS "The speech was one of Mubarak's most defiant moments: As a result the next few days are going to be very, very dangerous for Egypt." "Egypt will undergo a profound crisis that will put the army in a very risky position because its authority and unity may be undermined -- will it choose the President or the people? "Mubarak is disconnected from reality. He never talked about blunders or mistakes. Forget about listening to the wishes of the people. He talked instead of about infiltrators, how protesters have been manipulated." "In his mind he is a strong man who is not going to run away like Ben Ali or like the Shah of Iran." ANTHONY SKINNER, ANALYST, POLITICAL RISK CONSULTANCY MAPLECROFT "The tide has turned so violently against Mubarak that you could almost call it a tsunami and I think however strongly he tries to avoid it, he will still be caught up in it. Any attempt by himself some more weeks or months in power is not going to be taken well. EMILE HOKAYEM, SENIOR FELLOW FOR REGIONAL SECURITY, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES-MIDDLE EAST "For most people it won't be enough. The speech has the potential to enrage people more. There were elements that won't go down so well -- there was a bit of self-congratulation. If this had been his offer on January 25 it would be another story. "This is a deal that I suspect will be underwritten by the military. At the same time, there will probably be a public relations campaign to say 'we need an orderly transition'. But the army may be seen as having protected Mubarak. "It's going to be a difficult sell." ELLIOT ABRAMS, FORMER DEPUTY U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER "It won't work. This just really won't work," he told CNN. "I can't see anybody in Tahrir Square accepting that he will be president for eight more months and that he would, after 30 years, be trusted to be the man in charge of the democratic transition. Why would anyone believe that?" FAYSAL ITANI, DEPUTY HEAD OF MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA FORECASTING, EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS "It's not enough. The man is very stubborn. He's clinging on to everything he can." "The longer this goes on, the more people will associate the military top brass with Mubarak. That is very dangerous." "The risk then grows that you have a low-ranking officers' coup. "It will put enormous strain on the security services. Meanwhile, the people taking over security on the ground are the Muslim Brotherhood, distributing wheat, setting up people's protection groups." "The protesters are not going to go anywhere. I mean they go home to eat, but they'll come back." KAMRAN BOKHARI, HEAD OF MIDDLE EAST ANALYSIS, POLITICAL RISK CONSULTANCY STRATFOR "It's huge. It will send shockwaves across the region. It's not that I would necessarily say there's going to be a domino effect, but I think we will see an increase in protest and governments will certainly be worried. It is a tectonic shift." "I don't think it will be enough for the protesters. I think they think they just need to push a bit more and he will be gone completely. If he stays until September, that will give the regime a chance to reorganise and I don't think the protesters will want that. I think they will be back out on the streets tomorrow." "Then the most likely scenario would be the military would have to force Mubarak out. Then we would have to have an interim government -- and creating that will be a can of worms. Then you would have elections. It's quite possible the Muslim Brotherhood would perform well, but the military will also want to have a role. Putting all those moving parts together will be very difficult." STEPHEN COHEN, PRESIDENT, INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT "He acknowledged this time that he is part of the issue. He didn't pretend that he isn't. He accepted that is not going to be president for long ... that's better than where he was before. But I don't think its the end of the story." "The main issue is what he said: he couldn't get a meeting with all of the opposition because the Muslim Brotherhood would not accept to go to a meeting with Suleiman until their basic demands were met. That question is still open, and the question is how are the opposition going to handle it. Mubarak is not going to leave office to give the country over to fundamentalists ... He will not walk away to give them the power." "I don't think they will be satisfied ultimately ... but right now they are responding as they should. They have made first stage victory." "The fact that he didn't mention means that he is keeping it. And the state of emergency is not an acceptable part of the future of Egypt." DIAA RASHWAN, POLITICAL ANALYST, AL AHRAM CENTRE FOR POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES "Mubarak's speech will not appease the Egyptian people. The speech does indeed include all of the concessions, such as not running for presidential election for a sixth term, and also the constitutional amendments of articles 76 and 77. However, Mubarak has not dissolved parliament, which the people say does not represent them. "His speech on the whole does not ensure a peaceful transition of power. "The speech reflected Mubarak's stubbornness and his persistence to continue. There is an obvious rejection from the people of him continuing. However, he was trying to appeal to their emotions, that is what the speech as about, telling them he served his country for 30 years, and he is a son of the nation. JOHN BRIGGS, U.S. INTEREST-RATE STRATEGIST, RBS SECURITIES, STAMFORD, CONNECTICUT A lot of the risk that was embedded on Friday when these protests really started to exploded has been removed. If it re-emerges, I think you could get another flight to quality." MICHAEL WOOLFOLK, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BNY MELLON, NEW YORK "It's positive. Markets were anticipating it. It may very well be that he steps down before the end of his term. Markets will interpret this announcement as positive for the country and region and positive for risk appetite. ROBBERT VAN BATENBURG, HEAD OF GLOBAL RESEARCH, LOUIS CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK "With the momentum going on in the last eight days, the crowd there may not happy with this speech. The market may see this as a moment of stability and may act positively on it. This may be the quiet before the storm. I have a suspicion that some are underestimating how much the crowd wants change. I don't see this as a closure to the issue. I don't expect strength in the dollar even if the Egypt situation deteriorates. The oil market may be a better indicator of the perception on the risk in Egypt. The bond market is dealing with the extreme steepness between short and long-dated yields. Nothing will really change that dynamic." Recommend Send IM Story Print Related Articles Egypt's Mubarak digs in heels, protests continue AFP - 52 minutes ago Kazakh parliament passes early polls bill AFP - 1 hour 3 minutes ago Australia cyclone upgraded to top threat level AFP - 1 hour 28 minutes ago Soldiers wounded in Mauritania blast - source Reuters - 2 hours 1 minute ago UK-World Summary Reuters - 2 hours 21 minutes ago News Search Top Stories US auto sales jump 17 percent in January Cancer drug, when combined, boosts death risk British regulators ban YSL perfume ad Unilever to stop testing Lipton tea on animals BBC's 'Top Gear' show upsets Mexico More Top Stories » ADVERTISEMENT Most Popular Most Viewed US golfer Woods finds old habits hard to shake Brain scan can tell if a smoker will quit Canada investigates mass sled dog slaughter BP logs first annual loss since 1992 on oil spill disaster Photos released to protect threatened Amazonians More Most Viewed » More Most Recommended » Elsewhere on Yahoo! 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