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Sure-footed Australian PM stumbles before polls
AFP - 2 hours 7 minutes ago
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A succession of opinion polls has shown a steep drop-off in support for Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, pictured, who has been hit by a series of missteps and a reinvigorated political opposition.
SYDNEY (AFP) - – After an extended honeymoon, Australia's love affair with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has finally hit a rough patch, just months before the next elections.
Rudd, the bookish, centre-left leader with an image as a policy wonk, has enjoyed enviable popularity over his two-and-a-half years in power, and only a limited challenge from a divided opposition.
However, a succession of opinion polls has shown a steep drop-off in support for the Queenslander, who has been buffeted by a series of missteps and reinvigorated opponents.
A Newspoll released on Monday put voter satisfaction with Rudd at just 39 percent, nearly half the high of 71 percent he reached in his first year in office.
The survey showed Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard breathing down Rudd's neck as preferred Labor Party leader at 40 percent to his 45 percent, a finding she was quick to play down.
"There's more chance of me becoming the full-forward for the Dogs (Western Bulldogs Australian Rules football team) than there is any chance of a change in the Labor party," she said.
However, the sudden fall creates a headache for Rudd as he prepares to fight the next election, due before April but expected some time this year.
Last week the usually unruffled prime minister showed a flash of temper during a grilling by a TV interviewer, prompting speculation that he was rattled by his dip in fortunes.
"(Climate Change Minister) Penny Wong and I sat up for three days and three nights with 20 leaders from around the world to try and frame a global agreement," Rudd fired at ABC TV's Kerry O'Brien, referring to December's UN climate talks in Copenhagen.
"Now, it might be easy for you to sit in 7.30 Report-land and say that was easy to do. Let me tell you, mate, it wasn't."
The unfavourable polling follows a difficult period for Rudd, who was forced to shelve his flagship carbon-trading scheme -- centrepiece of his vaunted climate change programme -- under pressure from the opposition.
Rudd also demoted Environment Minister Peter Garrett after a botched scheme to provide free home insulation was blamed for the deaths of four workmen and dozens of house fires.
He has also come under increasing fire over plans to tax the "super profits" of the key mining sector by 40 percent, earning the wrath of resources firms and their many shareholders, which include pensions funds.
According to Wayne Errington, a political expert from the Australian National University, Rudd has been "clearing the decks" of bad news and would have been expecting a dip -- although perhaps not such a deep one.
"The descent in his personal popularity has been pretty steep. It's also fairly understandable when they made the decisions about the ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) and what-have-you," he said.
"What you're getting in the polls at the moment is a bit of negativity towards Rudd without necessarily endorsing (opposition leader Tony) Abbott whole-heartedly."
Bernard Keane, a political writer for the crikey.com website (www.crikey.com.au), said Rudd was likely to follow the long-standing tradition of first-term Australian governments by scraping a narrow election win.
"Rudd has been in a dominant position in the polls since 2006 and that's a hellishly long time to be that far in front," Keane said.
"In a way it's gravity finally catching up with him but it's taken a very long time. It's a bit like the fall of the Roman Empire: the question isn't so much why did it fall but why did it last as long as it did?"
However, he expected Rudd to scale back the frenetic schedule of near-daily interviews and appearances which have made him a constant presence on Australia's TV screens and airwaves.
"He's got a high media profile and he's always out there, but he's always got a fairly straightforward method of dealing with the media which is just to reiterate the same points over and over again," Keane said.
"His strategy is just to pound the same message over and over again in the hope that it might get through. So anything that requires some complexity or nuance or needs someone to effectively put together an argument, that style doesn't work."
Rudd is already less visible and remained nearly silent this week on opposition leader Abbott's spectacular gaffe that his unscripted remarks are often not true.
"I suspect Rudd will take a bit more of a back seat. He was told by his own caucus that he was over-exposed and needed to take a lower profile. I suspect he'll probably take that advice," Keane said.
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