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S.Korea Oct exports underscore global recovery woe
Reuters - Sunday, November 1
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By Seo Eun-kyung
SEOUL, Nov 1 - South Korean exports fell less than expected in the first month of the fourth quarter, but weak U.S. demand reinforced concerns a broad-based recovery in the global economy is not fully secured.
Exports by Asia's fourth-largest economy declined 8.3 percent in October from a year earlier, less than an 11.9 percent loss forecast in a Reuters poll, and the export value per working day hit a 1-year high, government data showed on Sunday.
South Korea is the region's first major economy to release October foreign trade figures, providing investors and policymakers around the world with an important guide on the strength of global trade.
Imports extended a recovery trend in October on improving domestic demand and rising oil prices, but analysts said the October trade data was not strong enough to force the central bank to raise interest rates within this year.
"The Bank of Korea could feel more tempted to raise rates as early as this month when looking at only the economic data," said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment & Securities.
"But it will likely wait until early next year because it may want to persuade the government and see the U.S. well on the recovery track safely," he added.
The government of President Lee Myung-bak, who rose to power early last year with promises to sharply boost economic growth and per-capita income, has publicly said an early tightening could push the economy back into a slump.
The Bank of Korea held the benchmark 7-day repurchase agreement rate <KROCRT=ECI> steady at record-low 2.0 percent for eight consecutive months and is widely seen as preparing to raise it from early next year. It next reviews rates on Nov. 12.
Sales by destination for the first 20 days of the month -- the latest available -- showed demand from China improved while demand from the United States remained fragile. The two account for one-third of South Korea's global exports.
Exports to China rose 3.4 percent during Oct. 1-20 over a year earlier after a 3.5 percent annual gain in September, while sales to the United States slid 37.4 percent, far worse than an 11.6 percent fall in September.
Total imports in October fell 16.3 percent over a year earlier, the slowest pace since November 2008, and compared with a 15.9 percent drop forecast in a Reuters poll. Imports have plunged more than 30 percent for much of this year.
The average export value per working day -- a useful measure to judge month-on-month growth -- rose 2.8 percent to $1.48 billion in October from September, the highest since October 2008, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said.
The ministry said in a statement that both exports and imports in November would probably return above the levels a year ago, when global trade collapsed.
It also said that the country's trade surplus for the whole of this year would exceed $40 billion for the first time ever, a big swing from a $13.3 billion shortfall in 2008.
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