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WRAPUP 1-South Korean president cements low interest rate view
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WRAPUP 1-South Korean president cements low interest rate view
Reuters - Thursday, April 1
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* Lee stresses international coordination on exit policy
* Comment made to incoming central bank chief
* Some analysts see no interest rate rise before Fed moves
* "Cheap won" advocate becomes senior presidential aide
By Yoo Choonsik
SEOUL, March 31 - South Korea's president told the new central bank chief on Wednesday to coordinate with other countries in unwinding stimulus policy, reinforcing investors' view that interest rates will stay low for a few more months.
Bond futures extended gains on the news as traders read it as suggesting that the government does not want the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates before other big central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, start raising theirs.
The president's selection late on Wednesday of a "cheap won" advocate as chief economic secretary reinforced the market's interest rate expectations as the government will likely pursue a policy aimed at keeping credit costs and currency value low.
"Countries should coordinate with each other over exit strategy," a presidential office statement quoted President Lee Myung-bak as saying after awarding Kim Choong-soo the letter of appointment as the Governor of the Bank of Korea. Kim, who will start work on Thursday, agreed.
June treasury bond futures <KTBc1> extended gains after their remarks, although cutting much of the day's gains by the close as government data showed industrial output in February expanded much faster from January than the market had expected.
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For graphic on industrial output, double-click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/310/KR_INDPRD0310.gif
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"Remarks from the government have become more important than before as the government is now widely seen as dominating over the central bank," said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment & Securities.
CHEAP WON POLICY
Analysts say the return of Choi Jung-kyung, who was part of a big won-selling intervention in 2003-2004, could lead to more frequent and stronger government intervention in the currency market to cap the won's strength.
The won <KRW=><KRW=KFTC> finished the first quarter higher against the dollar, marking the fourth quarterly gain in a row and approaching a 1-1/2-year high of 1,117.5 per dollar set in early January. It last traded at 1,131.3.
There is no official data on how much of won the government dumped to keep the currency cheap in 2003/2004, but South Korean media and traders estimate the government had sold far more than 10 trillion won .
A majority of analysts had forecast the Bank of Korea would start raising interest rates as early as late last year, but the central bank has since toned down its views on economy, prompting investors to scale back expectations for an early tightening.
The spread of 1-year interest rate swaps <KRQMCD1Y=KMBC> over 91-day certificate of deposit rate <KRCD=KQ> has shrunk to 33 basis points from as much as 81 basis points early this year.
The president's selection of Kim, a scholar-turned-diplomat without central bank experience, has boosted speculation among bond traders that the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates until the government agrees to a hike.
The government has repeatedly said the central bank should hold off on raising rates until the economy grows sustainably. It also sent a representative to central bank meetings for the first time in a decade.
Outgoing Governor Lee Seong-tae, who was at the central bank for around 40 years, has said several times that keeping interest rates low for a long time would stoke inflationary pressures.
The Bank of Korea has its interest rate at a record-low 2.0 percent for 13 months after six cuts totalling 325 basis points.
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