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Edition: U.S. Article Save Email Print Reprints Most Popular Most Shared Government set to unveil offshore drilling plan 29 Mar 2010 REFILE-UPDATE 4-Mini-Big Bangs created in cosmos origins project 30 Mar 2010 Obama wants U.N. sanctions on Iran in weeks | Video 5:11am EDT Sex infection gonorrhea risks becoming "superbug" 29 Mar 2010 Obama announces drilling expansion for climate push | Video 11:41am EDT Government set to unveil offshore drilling plan 29 Mar 2010 REFILE-UPDATE 4-Mini-Big Bangs created in cosmos origins project 30 Mar 2010 Obama announces drilling expansion for climate push | Video 11:41am EDT States high on pot tax as budget cure 30 Mar 2010 Theme park highlights challenges facing dwarfs | Video 27 Mar 2010 Pictures Editor's Choice A selection of our best photos from the past 24 hours. Slideshow UK hung parliament risk up Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent LONDON Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:59am EDT Factbox Factbox: Who are the contenders for Britain's finance minister? 9:47am EDT Related News UK Conservatives propose bank to fund social action 9:59am EDT Britain's Conservative Party leader, David Cameron, listens to questions during an interview on BBC television, in Stourbridge, central England March 28, 2010. Credit: Reuters/Jeff Overs/BBC/Handout LONDON (Reuters) - An outright win for Britain's opposition Conservatives would suit financial markets best in an upcoming election, but economists polled by Reuters ranked the party's likely choice for finance minister poorly against peers. World The poll of 31 economists taken this week showed an increasing number predicting a hung parliament in the poll on May 6 and warning this was the worst result for markets. The poll results derive from extra questions put to Reuters' regular panel of economists for its closely-watched Bank of England interest rate poll. An outright opposition Conservative majority was seen as the best market outcome, but they were distinctly lukewarm in their enthusiasm for current Shadow Chancellor George Osborne, ranking him fourth out of five potential finance ministers. Conservative shadow business spokesman Ken Clarke was their favored choice, followed by third-party Liberal Democrat finance spokesman Vince Cable and current Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, all outperforming Osborne. The predictions on a hung parliament -- given a median 55 percent and mean 56 percent chance -- was a sharp shift from a similar poll published on January 28, which showed only a 25 percent chance of no one party winning an overall majority. Since then, opinion polls have shown the Conservative lead shrinking sharply, raising market worries an inconclusive outcome might provide policy paralysis just as ratings agencies and investors demand action on a record deficit. Those worries have hammered sterling, which has lost some 6.5 percent against the dollar in two months. It has lost 2.5 percent against the euro at a time when the single currency has itself been battered by worries over Greece and other troubled fringe economies. "Markets generally believe the Conservatives will act faster on the deficit, so it's no surprise that is the favored option," said Adam Cole, head of foreign exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Canada. "The main thing is to have a credible government, of whatever color." Overall, those polled saw a median 30 percent chance of a Conservative majority, a 35 percent chance they would be the largest party in a hung Parliament, a 20 percent chance Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament and a 10 percent chance Labour would win outright. CIGAR-SMOKING EX-CHANCELLOR Those polled ranked a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party as the worst outcome for markets, followed by an outright Labour majority followed by a hung parliament with the Conservatives as a largest party. Least favored as a potential occupant of number 11 Downing Street was Ed Balls, a close confidant of Prime Minister Gordon Brown who some have speculated might replace Darling -- although Brown rejected this in a weekend interview. The Conservatives have poured scorn on occasional suggestions they could replace Osborne -- a close personal friend of party leader David Cameron and sometimes accused of inexperience -- with Clarke. However, Cameron said earlier this month he could fire Osborne if he had to. Osborne, Darling and Cable faced off against each other in a televised debate on Monday, with Liberal Democrat Cable widely seen coming out on top. A former economist for oil firm Shell widely credited with partially predicting the financial crisis, Cable repeatedly polls as one of Britain's most respected politicians. While his party is seen having almost no chance of outperforming its two larger rivals, they could hold the balance of power in a hung parliament, with Cable a potential coalition chancellor. They, and some analysts, argue that a hung parliament would not necessarily prevent responsible policy making, pointing to similar circumstances in Europe and elsewhere. Others argue that Britain has no tradition of coalition politics and such an outcome would prove relatively unstable. (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Additional reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by Patrick Graham) World More from Reuters Private sector sheds 23,000 jobs in March NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers unexpectedly shed more jobs in March, dampening hopes for job growth ahead of Friday's key employment report. Anglo Irish Bank posts $17 billion loss Obama announces drilling expansion for climate push | Video EMI needs fresh cash as licensing talks collapse Rite Aid forecast worse than expected; shares down Irish banks look beyond "bad bank," recession » More Top News Coming soon: Offshore drilling President Obama is hoping that a plan to allow oil and gas exploration off the coast of Virginia will kill three birds with one stone. Full Article Video: Short and long term impact Deepwater drillers have room to grow Poll: Do you support offshore drilling? Oil and Gas Exploration Goodbye, Federal Reserve Hello Fannie and Freddie. The Fed ends its $1.25 trillion mortgage bond buying binge, but there's good news for the housing market. Full Article All okay without the Fed? A buying opportunity? Housing Market © Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Analyst Research Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Labs Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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