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OPEC cuts demand projection for 2009
By TAREK ELTABLAWY,AP Business Writer AP - Wednesday, December 17
CAIRO, Egypt - OPEC on Tuesday forecast world oil demand will fall in 2009, offering the latest dire look at how the global financial meltdown was pummeling world economies and keeping crude prices at stubbornly low levels.
As ministers of the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries gear up for a meeting in which they are expected to cut production, the bloc said world oil demand was forecast to average 85.7 million barrels per day in 2009, down 150,000 barrels per day from 2008 levels.
Last month, it predicted 2009 demand would be 86.68 million barrels per day, or 1 million barrels per day higher.
The group's December Monthly Oil Report was released a day ahead of the group's meeting in Algeria. Expectations are that the group will cut production in a bid to support crude prices that have fallen by over 65 percent from a mid-July record of nearly $150 per barrel. Ahead of the meeting, the U.S. benchmark crude oil contract for January delivery hovered around $45 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"What is important is that there should be a consensus to cut production. A significant cut," Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said after arriving in the North African nation on Tuesday.
OPEC projected a drop in demand for the first half of 2009 resulting from a "huge decline" in oil demand in the 30-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It said OECD oil demand is forecast to show an average decline of 1.3 million barrels per day year-on-year in the first half of 2009.
"Should the world economic situation show further deterioration and the winter prove to be warmer than expected, then oil demand might show a further decline," said the Vienna, Austria-based group of producers that account for 40 percent of the world's oil said.
The report said world oil demand growth will be boosted mainly by China, the Middle East and Other Asia, estimated at 600,000 barrels per day or 78 percent of non-OECD forecast oil demand growth next year.
The forecast is the latest dire prediction of faltering demand as the world struggles with economic woes that have driven many countries into a recession.
Days ago, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said that world oil demand will contract this year for the first time in 25 years. The IEA also cut its forecast for global demand in 2009, saying it would increase by only 0.5 percent to 86.3 million barrels a day.
OPEC's forecast of even lower demand next year offers clear indications of the challenges confronting the oil producing group as it struggles to reverse a stubborn decline in prices stoked by demand destruction.
The bloc's meeting in Algeria is widely expected to result in an output cut, though analysts question whether a reduction of even 2 million barrels a day will offer anything more than a short-term boost in prices.
"The growing imbalance in the oil market over the coming quarters will lead to a much higher overhang in inventories, if the global recession deepens," said the report. "This presents a real challenge for all market participants and will be the main focus of discussion" at the Oran, Algeria meeting.
OPEC ministers, in comments echoed by the IEA and the U.S. Energy Department, have warned that faltering prices are undermining investment in oil projects, setting the stage for another price spike once the world economy rebounds.
The group's report said that non-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to increase by 600,000 barrels per day over 2008 levels, representing a 100,000 bpd downward revision.
It forecast that demand for its crude oil will fall by 1.4 million barrels per day next year.
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