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Expectations of 2 million barrel OPEC oil cut grow
By ADAM SCHRECK,AP Business Writer AP - Wednesday, December 17
ORAN, Algeria - Expectations that OPEC will slash oil production by as much as 2 million barrels a day firmed on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia suggested a reduction of that magnitude is likely.
Such a cut, while not unprecedented, would be considerable given that OPEC has already taken that much oil off the market since September in an attempt to stem crude's slide.
Prices have plummeted 70 percent since July, convincing producers to shelve oil industry projects and threatening national budgets largely funded by petrodollars.
It was unclear if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has convinced Russia, the world's second-biggest producer, to coordinate production cuts with the 13-nation group.
Moscow sent a high-level delegation to OPEC's meeting in the Oran, Algeria. Igor Sechin, Russia's deputy prime minister for energy, huddled with OPEC President Chakib Khelil in a closed-door session at the conference site Tuesday evening.
Sechin indicated after the meeting Russia was prepared to pull back production, but he was not more specific.
"Russian companies are already reducing production," Sechin told reporters. He said Russian companies had reduced output by 50,000 barrels a day in November.
Russia is headed for the first annual drop in a decade _ a product of underinvestment and the partial re-nationalization of the oil industry.
OPEC delegates, meanwhile, sent clear signals that a major reduction was planned.
Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said "supply is still somewhat in excess of demand" and global stockpiles are higher than normal. That reflected comments made earlier by Khelil, who is also Algeria's energy minister, and other delegates.
"Of course, to bring things in balance, there will be a cut ... to the tune of about 2 million barrels," Naimi said.
Saudi Arabia, by far OPEC's largest producer, usually sets the tone on production cuts and other major policy decisions.
Analysts say oil traders are already pricing in a cut of up to 2 million barrels. Benchmark light, sweet crude prices wavered in and out of positive territory Tuesday.
While crude's fall from $147 in July may be good for consumers already straining from the financial crisis, OPEC states are hurting from levels that are in some cases now below what's needed to balance their budgets or earn a profit.
Oil producers fear a drawn-out lull in prices could hurt investment and lay the groundwork for another sharp price spike when the world's economy rebounds.
"There's always been some finger-pointing at OPEC, but now even some (rich consuming nations) are saying maybe prices have gone too far," Olivier Jakob of energy analysis firm Petromatrix in Switzerland said ahead of the meeting. "In terms of security of supply, you are much worse at $40 a barrel than at $75."
OPEC gave ministers ammunition to justify cuts in its latest monthly market report, released Tuesday. The bloc predicted demand for its crude oil will have fallen by 700,000 barrels per day this year, and will drop by at least twice that amount in 2009 as the worsening global economy "is expected to have a strong impact on oil demand."
OPEC ministers made clear that a large cut is necessary to shock the market and put a floor under prices.
Shokri Ghanem, Libya's delegate to OPEC, said that "we should make a substantial cut." In response to a question, he said 2 million barrels was "a very good number."
Venezuela's energy minister, Rafael Ramirez, used similar language: "What is important is that there should be a consensus to cut production. A significant cut," he said. Ramirez added that Venezuela, a traditional price hawk, favors a cut of between 1 million to 2 million barrels per day.
Iranian Petroleum Minister Gholamhossein Nozari did not give a number, but said in response to a question that Iran would support a reduction of 2 million barrels per day.
While it is eager to push prices higher, OPEC must weigh production cuts against the risk of driving the economies of its top customers deeper into recession.
A senior OPEC official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said "reasonable" OPEC nations would accept prices around $50 a barrel in the short term so as not to contribute to the world economic downturn.
Ministers arrived to Oran under extraordinary security. Police and the military manned multiple check points in and around the city.
Local newspapers reported that authorities swept through the western Algeria port to temporarily take dozens of petty criminals off the streets. The El Khabar daily said an additional 4,000 police officers were assigned to the city.
Two al-Qaida militants were killed in a gunbattle with the army in a town near Oran over the weekend. Security was further tightened on Tuesday as Algeria's President Abdelaziz Bouteflika arrived to tour the city and meet the OPEC delegates ahead of presidential elections this spring.
___
Associated Press writers Angela Charlton, George Jahn, Alfred de Montesquiou in Oran contributed to this report.
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