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US earnings season kicks off with gloomy outlook
AFP - 2 hours 26 minutes ago
WASHINGTON, (AFP) - - The first quarter US corporate earnings reporting season has kicked off with Wall Street bracing for another dismal performance that could keep markets on tenterhooks.
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US aluminum giant Alcoa became the first blue chip company to report its January-to-March earnings after the stock market closed Tuesday, declaring a hefty 497-million-dollar net loss amid plunging prices for the key metal.
Its second consecutive quarterly loss was higher than expected by most analysts and underscored the depth of the 16-month-old US recession flooding listed companies with red ink.
"Alcoa has come out with earnings and losses which are as dismal as a vacation in hell without any water and without any flame retardant," said Jon Ong of 24/7 Wall Street.
But the earnings were a little "less bad" than expected, or at least not as bad compared to some estimates, he hastened to add.
Excluding one-time charges, Alcoa posted a loss of 59 cents a share, slightly higher than the 57 cents a share projected by most analysts.
Anticipating another downbeat earnings season, Wall Street investors locked in profits for the second straight session Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 186.29 points or 2.34 percent to end at 7,789.56.
The blue chip index drifted further away from the 8,000 level it breached last Friday capping a four-week rally.
"Wall Street anticipates a seventh straight quarter of declining profits," said Wachovia Securities chief market strategist Al Goldman.
"The market is more vulnerable to the expected poor first-quarter earnings and disappointing management outlooks given the recent sharp advance in stocks," he said.
The latest consensus of industry analysts is that large-cap firms covering about 75 percent of the American equity market by capitalization earned on average 12.26 dollars per share on an operating basis during the January-March period.
The average was 16.62 dollars per share a year ago and 22.39 dollars in the 2007 first quarter.
As the earnings reporting season began, investors had to stomach more depressing news.
A report by Standard & Poors said Tuesday that 367 firms slashed a total of 77 billion dollars in dividend in the first quarter, making it the worst quarter on record for corporate dividends.
It "is eye-popping," said Howard Silverblatt, senior analyst at S&P, in a research report Tuesday.
"The full impact of these cuts will be felt this quarter, when the dividend check is sent in the mail."
Another rating agency Moody's Investors Service said the default rate for corporate bonds was the highest in March since the Great Depression.
Adding to the uncertainty was a survey released Tuesday showing chief executives of many major corporations anticipated a decrease in expected sales, capital expenditures and employment figures for the next six months.
The US stock market has had a very good run the past four weeks based on the belief that financial companies were stabilizing, and sporadic improvement in economic data, especially consumer spending.
Whether that proves to be the case may become more evident with bank earnings reports starting on April 16.
US corporate trends, such as industrial production, payrolls, and orders, remain weak, analysts at Briefing.com cautioned in a note to clients. "It is not clear whether the bounce in consumer demand will prove a harbinger of better times ahead or a false spring."
Some analysts said that banks could capitalize on a recent change to accounting rules that offered them more leeway in valuing distressed assets. The change may prop up earnings even as financial realities remain dour.
But Mike Mayo, an analyst with Calyon Securities, said he expected bank loan losses to hit levels that exceeded the Great Depression.
And a news report said the International Monetary Fund will raise its estimates for US bad debt to 3.1 trillion dollars.
"While the tone of the market has improved with the markets third 20 percent rally since October, we continue to expect above average price volatility as we work through earnings season over the next six weeks," said Frederic Dickson, chief market strategist for DA Davidson & Co.
But he added, "the market picture looks a lot better than it did two months ago, with emerging signs that the recession may be in the early stage of slowing down."
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A protestor holds a sign during a "National March On Wall Street." The first quarter US corporate earnings reporting season has kicked off with Wall Street bracing for another dismal performance that could keep markets on tenterhooks.
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