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Tuesday, 11 October 2011 - Analysis: Chavez cancer saga keeps Venezuela guessing |
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      Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Technology Media Small Business Green Business Legal Deals Earnings Summits Business Video Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia Afghan Journal Africa Journal India Insight Global News Journal Pakistan: Now or Never? World Video Politics Politics Home Front Row Washington Politics Video Technology Technology Home MediaFile Science Tech Video Opinion Opinion Home Chrystia Freeland Felix Salmon Jack Shafer Breakingviews David Rohde Bernd Debusmann Gregg Easterbrook Nader Mousavizadeh James Saft John Wasik Christopher Whalen Ian Bremmer Mohamed El-Erian Lawrence Summers The Great Debate Unstructured Finance Newsmaker MuniLand Money Money Home Analyst Research Global Investing MuniLand Reuters Money Alerts Watchlist Portfolio Stock Screener Fund Screener Personal Finance Video Life & Culture Health Sports Arts Faithworld Business Traveler Left Field Entertainment Oddly Enough Lifestyle Video Pictures Pictures Home Reuters Photographers Full Focus Video Article Comments (0) VIDEO Cairo tense after deadly clashes The Egyptian capital is tense following deadly clashes last night in which at least 25 people were killed, with residents calling for religious unity.  Video  Egypt Christians mourn dead after clashes kill 25 Thai floods threaten humanitarian disaster Fighting continues in Bani Walid Thai-American pleads guilty to royal insult Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Egypt Christians vent fury after clashes kill 25 | 1:55pm EDT California bans use of tanning beds by minors 09 Oct 2011 Libya forces corner Gaddafi loyalists in Sirte | 4:42pm EDT Special report: China's debt pileup raises risk of hard landing 11:30am EDT Liberal maverick to push for secular Poland after win 12:38pm EDT Discussed 268 Secret panel can put Americans on ”kill list’ 162 California governor signs controversial ”Dream Act” 141 Senate takes first step on China yuan bill Watched Rihanna's "inappropriate" outfit halts music video Tue, Sep 27 2011 Japanese inventor buoyed by demand for tsunami rescue pod Fri, Oct 7 2011 Nineteen killed as Egypt Christians, police clash Sun, Oct 9 2011 Analysis: Chavez cancer saga keeps Venezuela guessing Tweet Share this Email Print Factbox FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Venezuela Mon, Oct 3 2011 Related News PSA test for prostate cancer not recommended: panel Fri, Oct 7 2011 Rapping Chavez launches coalition year before vote Fri, Oct 7 2011 From Bolivar to Chavez, Venezuelans feast on the arepa Tue, Oct 4 2011 Hugo Chavez sends solidarity to Gaddafi, Syria Sat, Oct 1 2011 Analysis & Opinion Latin America rejects old U.S. approach in drugs war We’re all in the same boat Related Topics World » Venezuela » Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez takes part in a meeting with members of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) at Miraflores Palace in Caracas October 8, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Miraflores Palace/Handout By Enrique Andres Pretel CARACAS | Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:49pm EDT CARACAS (Reuters) - An unexpected phone call interrupts a Venezuelan government ceremony for local athletes broadcast live on state TV. The crowd murmurs in excitement, and ministers smile. "It's the ghost talking!" reverberates the voice of President Hugo Chavez, via loudspeakers, prompting laughter and applause. "The ghost of Miraflores," he adds, referring to the Caracas presidential palace where he is convalescing after four rounds of chemotherapy following a June operation in Cuba to remove a baseball-sized cancerous tumor from his abdomen. As cockerels crow and parrots squawk in the background at Miraflores, the 57-year-old socialist president proceeds to take over the event by telephone and expound to the nation. Chavez's self-description as a ghost is apt. Since the surgery no one knows when, where or how he is going to pop up in public. Neither does anyone, beyond a small inner circle of doctors and confidants, know the details of his condition. When he does appear or his voice suddenly booms without warning from the TV, he assures "chavistas," his supporters, that he will be fit to fight for re-election in twelve months. Yet both his physical appearance -- shaven-headed after chemotherapy, and with a notably swollen face -- plus the brevity of his appearances, compared to his famous marathon sessions, seem to undercut that. Chavez, who travels to Cuba this coming weekend, insists final checks will give him a clean bill of health. But some now wonder if he will reach the vote, and many are convinced the "Chavismo" movement would not survive his death. All the talk over Chavez's health has eclipsed other pressing issues in Venezuela, like untamed crime, soaring prices and constant failures in public services. Those may re-emerge as big factors at the vote on October 7, 2012. EXPERTS EVERYWHERE The rumor-mill over Chavez's illness has been in constant overdrive, turning many Venezuelans into pseudo-doctors. Whenever Chavez disappears from public view for a couple of days, rumors spread like wildfire in the politically-polarized Caribbean nation, fueled by an official veil of secrecy. Tossing a baseball in public recently to dispel one report that he was on death's door, Chavez bristled when an American journalist pressed for more medical details. "What do you want? That I bring out the tumor to show you what it was? That's what you want to feed your morbid taste. I won't satisfy you." Chavez said the cancer has not metastasized, or spread. Some are convinced Chavez is dying from a severe cancer, either of the prostate, colon or bladder. Others believe he has made the whole thing up just to win a few sympathy votes. One theory making the rounds is that he has a rare form of cancer in a muscle, is suffering from severe anemia, or irreversible kidney failure. Plenty of Venezuelans, however, doubt Chavez's account. "He's a magician and has had advisors helping him dissimulate, distract and misinform," said local pro-opposition journalist Nelson Bocaranda, whose reports on Chavez's cancer have irked the government. "But I believe that in the end, it's the head of state himself who has most doubts about it all." RISK AND RUMOR With no obvious successor, and none of his allies daring to talk in public about the possibility of his exit from the political stage, local media speculate endlessly over the different factions preparing to slug it out for his office. Financial markets are not excluded from the health debate. The rumors play havoc on sovereign bond prices with erratic movements tied to every twist and turn in the unfolding saga. When the Miami newspaper El Nuevo Herald reported last month that Chavez was having emergency treatment for kidney failure, prices jumped, only to fall again hours later when the president threw around a baseball for the cameras. "Venezuela's bonds are the most sensitive in Latin America to headlines," said Nomura Bank analyst Boris Segura. Chavez's ratings have risen to near-60 percent on a sympathy bounce and a full recovery would allow him to present an image of triumph over adversity and restore his aura of invulnerability. But if he worsens, or goes into the election looking sick, that might play badly with voters who like a strong leader. Opposition leaders know this may be the best chance in years to unseat him and they will hold a primary vote on February 12 to pick a unity candidate to run against him. They have scrupulously avoided being seen to gloat over Chavez's illness, but opposition web sites and media have been less disciplined with endless speculation on his health as well as supposed splits among his allies and within the military. "Everything is part of an opposition strategy to spread chaos in Venezuela. They are trying to damage the president by sowing doubts about his capacity to govern," said U.S.-Venezuelan lawyer Eva Golinger, a friend of Chavez. The health issue is the biggest wildcard for the vote. "If Chavez is fit, he will be the favorite, though not guaranteed," wrote Luis Vicente Leon, head of Datanalisis pollster, in a column. "But it won't be easy for him if he has to campaign sick, especially when all opposition candidates will have what he doesn't: youth, energy and future." (Writing by Andrew Cawthorne; Editing by Daniel Bases and Kieran Murray) World Venezuela Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. Social Stream (What's this?)   Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Contact Us Advertise With Us Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Podcast   Newsletters   Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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