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Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Email Print Reprints Read 5 Reasons the Media Cover Apple So Much 27 Sep 2010 NASA showdown looms as shuttle workers face layoffs 27 Sep 2010 Middle-aged suicides on rise in U.S., study finds 27 Sep 2010 U.S. business fears "downward spiral" in China trade 27 Sep 2010 Millionaire Segway owner dies in cliff fall 27 Sep 2010 Shared Kno Creates 14-inch Tablet for Students 27 Sep 2010 Old, pressed flowers give climate clues: study 21 Sep 2010 Exxon Mobil's LNG project in PNG attacked -media 27 Sep 2010 Diabetes risk may fall as magnesium intake climbs 24 Sep 2010 Special report: Is there power in Europe's unions? 27 Sep 2010 Watched BlackBerry's new PlayBook Mon, Sep 27 2010 The day ahead: September 28, 2010 Mon, Sep 27 2010 RIM's "PlayBook" unveiled Mon, Sep 27 2010 Will your new film be a hit? Ask the web Tweet This Share on LinkedIn Share on Facebook Related News Google's proposed music service faces uphill climb Fri, Sep 17 2010 Popularity can come at a price: getting flu first Wed, Sep 15 2010 Sanofi offers flu vaccine with short, thin needle Mon, Sep 13 2010 UPDATE 3-Google seeks to speed up Web searches Wed, Sep 8 2010 Related Topics Technology » Film » Media » Stocks A generic picture of a woman in an office using a computer mouse. OFFPO Credit: Reuters/Catherine Benson By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor WASHINGTON | Mon Sep 27, 2010 7:22pm EDT WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Tracking web searches for new songs, video games and movies can predict which ones will be big hits, but often not much better than traditional methods, researchers at Yahoo Inc reported on Monday. And they confirmed earlier findings that showed searches associated with diseases, such as Google's Google Flu Trends, were not any more effective than traditional methods for predicting the spread of infections. Tracking web searches worked the best in predicting how a new video game would sell, Yahoo's Sharad Goel and Jake Hofman said. "Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance," they wrote in a report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes," they added. "We considered four different classes of web activity. At least three of them we do a pretty good job of predicting outcomes," Goel said in a telephone interview. Counting the number of searches related to new songs was the least effective, they found. But Goel said using Billboard Top 100 listings to predict whether a song would stay at the top of the charts worked as well as or better than counting web searches. Critics' ratings for movies also worked just about as well for predicting box office performance as web searches, he said. "Given the attention that search-based predictions have received recently, it may seem surprising that search data are, at least in some cases, no more informative than traditional data sources," they wrote. To check their findings, they took another look at flu data. Google offers a free product for trying to predict the movement of influenza by tracking web searches for words such as "flu", "fever" and "Tamiflu". The Yahoo team found the search engine method only worked a little better than simply tracking hospital and health department reports of flu activity. Other researchers have shown that counts of search terms in 2001-2003 correlated with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment figures and that searches for cancer-related terms matched how common those types of cancers were. Hofman and Goel said they could not comment on whether Yahoo was developing a search engine product for predicting sales. Technology Film Media Add a Comment *We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language or appear to be spam and review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. © Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Analyst Research Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Reuters on Facebook Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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