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Assad holds Syria army despite Sunni-Alawite divide
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By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
AMMAN (Reuters) - Senior Syrian army ranks are packed with loyal members of President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite minority, reducing any prospect of military pressure on him to stand aside if protests grow, military experts...
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Syria's President Bashar al-Assad (C) attends a dinner in honor of the army officers on the 65th Army Foundation anniversary in Damascus August 1, 2010. On left is Syrian Defense Minister General Ali Habib and on right, Chief of Staff General Dawoud Rajha.
Credit: Reuters/Sana
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
AMMAN |
Wed Apr 6, 2011 11:01am EDT
AMMAN (Reuters) - Senior Syrian army ranks are packed with loyal members of President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite minority, reducing any prospect of military pressure on him to stand aside if protests grow, military experts say.
Unlike the armies in Tunisia and Egypt, whose refusal to confront non-violent demonstrations spelt the demise of their autocratic rulers, the fate of many senior Syrian military officers is closely tied to that of Assad.
Although some officers from the Sunni Muslim majority have been promoted to senior ranks, Sunni influence has been weakened and Assad's brother Maher controls key military units packed with Alawite soldiers.
"It will take an extraordinary amount of people power to defeat a regime this deeply entrenched. This is not Tunisia," said W. Andrew Terrill, research professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Army War college.
"The regime has been careful about placing Alawite loyalists in all key positions within the military so that the regime can defeat any effort to overthrow it. Some Sunni officers have risen to very high ranks but have very little power to command troops," Terrill said from Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania.
The Assad family which has ruled Syria for 41 years comes from the Alawite mountains overlooking the Mediterranean, a stronghold of the secretive sect with links to Shi'ite Islam.
Assad, who faces the greatest threat to his rule from more than two weeks of protests calling for an end to emergency law and one-party rule, has responded with a blend of force -- his security forces have killed dozens of protesters -- and vague promises of reform.
SECURITY BACKBONE
Residents of Deraa, cradle of the Syrian protests, say Alawite forces commanded by Assad's younger brother Maher have taken up positions around the southern city.
Maher controls the Presidential Guard, the Republican Guard, and the Fourth Armoured Division -- key units that form the security backbone of the state together with the Alawite-dominated secret police.
"Some observers consider Maher al-Assad to be excessively violent and emotionally volatile. It appears that President Assad views his brother as totally trustworthy," said Terrill, a specialist in Syrian military affairs.
Although family ties ensure the loyalty of the top brass, Assad cannot antagonize the army rank-and-file with a repeat of the 1982 crackdown on the city of Hama, when his father Hafez al-Assad sent commandos, paratroopers and Baath Party irregulars to put down an armed uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Hafez al-Assad's brother Rifaat personally managed the Hama operation, in which tens of thousands were killed and parts of the city flattened.
"Syria 2011 is not Syria 1982. You have hundreds of thousands of soldiers -- conscripts and professional soldiers -- who have seen only corruption and abuse of position by their Alawite commanders," said a former Syrian army member. "It will be very dangerous for Bashar to play this game.
"The army will not ask Bashar to step down, as was the case in Egypt and Tunisia, but he cannot easily ask the army to commit massacres either," the ex-soldier said.
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