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Analysis: To-do list largely undone
By ANDREW TAYLOR,Associated Press Writer AP - Sunday, August 9
WASHINGTON - Midway through the first year of their party's control of Congress and the White House, President Barack Obama and fellow Democrats can point to early signs the nation is beginning to shake off its worst recession in seven decades.
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Yet there are glaring holes in their to-do list: The biggest and most difficult priorities had not been accomplished as Obama reached the six-month mark, ending the normal honeymoon period most presidents enjoy.
While Obama and the Democrats did manage to enact the $787 billion stimulus, much remains undone:
_Health care coverage for most of the estimated 48 million people who lack it has failed to pass either the House or Senate, despite a now-expired deadline set by Obama.
_His global warming initiative squeaked through the House _ though it opened major rifts in the party _ but arrived in the Senate as a dead letter.
_An overhaul of lending and investing laws and a restructuring of the government's regulatory structure to prevent a repeat of last year's financial and credit market collapses are on the back burner for the time being.
Obama and congressional Democrats did succeed in pushing through a massive package of tax cuts, benefit increases and job-producing public works projects to help alleviate the recession. And they expanded health care coverage to millions more children, clamped down on cigarette producers and placed the first Hispanic on the Supreme Court.
They also bought some popularity by offering as much as $3 billion in government rebates of $3,500 and $4,500 for people to trade in old gas guzzlers for new cars or trucks that get better mileage.
Democrats remain confident that a massive overhaul of the U.S. health care system will win passage by the end of the year. The initiative, however, has lost the aura of inevitability that surrounded it in the spring. It squeaked through a key House committee only after moderate "Blue Dog" Democrats prevailed upon House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to postpone a full House vote until the fall.
Many of them felt stung by their politically scorching votes to combat global warming by raising Americans' electric bills, a top Pelosi priority, despite mounting evidence the Senate probably won't vote on it this year. Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., a top Pelosi ally, acknowledged recently the early vote on global warming made it more difficult to keep pace on health care reform.
Polls show that voters are losing faith in Obama's $787 billion economic recovery bill and are increasingly worried about the government's mushrooming debt.
The president's overall approval rating is still solid, in the mid-50s in most polls, including a 55 percent rating in an AP-Gfk poll conducted July 16-20. But it has slipped from the levels that for a time kept Republicans from criticizing Obama directly. Now the gloves are off, and the tone in Washington is as partisan as ever.
Pollster Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press says that while Obama has slipped in the polls, the ground hasn't fallen out from under him.
"Most importantly, the more general questions about confidence in him show no erosion," Kohut said. "People still think that he's going to fix the economy."
A president's signature accomplishment typically occurs in his first year in office, before the August congressional recess. It was tax cuts for Ronald Reagan and deficit reduction for George W. Bush, though health reform proved elusive for Bill Clinton.
Obama's top accomplishment clearly is the $787 billion measure blending federal spending and tax cuts to try to revive the economy. It was initially popular in public surveys, but 58 percent of those polled in the mid-July AP-Gfk poll said they were not confident it is helping the economy. Only 9 percent said were very confident that it is.
"We're pointed in the right direction," Obama said Friday as new unemployment figures showed a slight dip in the jobless rate _ even as the economy shed 247,000 jobs in July. "We're losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when I took office."
Lawmakers will return in September for a 3 1/2-month sprint that will include trying to pass some kind of health care bill that Obama and Democrats can claim victory on, the dozen appropriations bills that so far feature double-digit spending increases for 2010 and deceptively difficult legislation to beef up regulation of the financial system.
The Senate, or at least some of its committees, may also take a stab at global warming.
Still looming ominously are annual budget deficits projected to never dip below $600 billion in the coming decade. The eye-popping $1.8 trillion or more deficit expected for the current year is already weighing down Obama's agenda _ and also his standing with voters, especially with independents.
New deficit figures due later this month are expected to show continuing erosion. They promise to complicate Obama's agenda, both this fall and for the remainder of his term. For starters, financing Obama's health care bill is consuming the easier-to-achieve spending cuts and tax increases that will no longer be possible when he inevitably turns to reining in deficits.
If and when he does tackle the deficit _ either next year or after the 2010 midterm elections _ he'll be hard-pressed to keep his promise not to raise taxes on couples making less than $250,000.
But even as Obama's popularity slips slightly and approval ratings for Democrats in Congress remain low, both retain a key advantage: They're not Republicans, whose numbers are even worse. Chances of a political tsunami like that when Republicans swept Democrats from control of Congress in 1994 seems unlikely. Obama is still better-regarded than then-President Bill Clinton
"In 1993 and 1994, the Republicans were ascendant," said pollster Kohut. "We're talking about a very different situation for the Republican Party. ... The party's ratings are very low, and it's not seen as having a leader."
___
EDITOR'S NOTE _ Andrew Taylor covers Congress and budget policies for The Associated Press.
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