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Rate cut on cards as Bank of Japan meets
AFP - Friday, December 19
TOKYO (AFP) - - The Bank of Japan met Thursday amid growing expectations it would cut interest rates to rock-bottom, as the government gave its strongest hint yet that it could intervene to bring down the soaring yen.
Japan's central bank opened a two-day meeting after the US Federal Reserve slashed rates to virtually zero, bringing borrowing costs in the world's largest economy below the 0.3 percent in Japan, which for years had the world's lowest level.
Japanese government officials have made little secret they would welcome a rate cut by the central bank, which is independent but has often faced political pressure on how to steer the world's second largest economy.
Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa warned Thursday that the spike in the yen was causing pain to Japan's exporters, which are already feeling the pinch from the global economic crisis.
In Thursday afternoon trade in Tokyo, the dollar was quoted at 87.71 yen, slightly off a 13-year low of 87.11 yen in New York on Wednesday.
The dollar was also languishing against the euro, which on Wednesday posted its strongest gain against the greenback since the single European currency was launched in 1999.
Lower interest rates often weaken a currency by making it less lucrative. But the soaring yen hurts Japanese exporters, already suffering from the global downturn, by making their exports more costly.
Market players gave the central bank a two-thirds chance of cutting rates. The rate hopes helped Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei stock index post gains of 0.64 percent after briefly slumping into negative territory.
"I personally think that the BoJ will cut its rate to 0.1 percent after the yen rose to lower 87 yen levels," said Norio Miyagawa, economist at Shinko Research Institute.
"If there isn't a rate cut, the yen may rise further, which could invite government criticism against the central bank," he said.
But until recently, the BoJ had aimed to gradually raise rates to stop investors from binging on Japan's cheap credit.
"The BoJ is sure to take some action, but it could be instead in the form of outright purchases of commercial paper aimed at helping corporate fundraising," Miyagawa said.
The government on Thursday gave its strongest hint yet that it may intervene on the market for the first time in nearly five years to bring down the yen.
"We have intervened on the market before and we will take appropriate measures including (the option) of that," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura, the government's spokesman.
Nakagawa, the finance minister, later kept mum on intervention.
"I don't want to comment on whether we will intervene. But we do have the means," Nakagawa told reporters.
Japan's economy shrank 0.5 percent in the three months to September, entering its first recession in seven years.
Companies have slashed thousands of jobs as export markets dry up. Honda Motor Co. on Wednesday sharply cut its earnings forecast for the year, blaming in part the value of the yen.
Hideo Kumano, economist at Daiichi Life Research Institute, said that the chances of a rate cut had grown due to the sharp rise in the yen.
"But the Bank might hold the decision off until January, after making every effort short of cutting the key rate this time such as purchasing commercial paper," he added.
In October, the Bank of Japan joined a wave of global rate cuts by lowering its benchmark level from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent. It was its first cut in seven years.
The Japanese central bank has also pumped huge amounts of cash into the financial system since the global credit crunch erupted.
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