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Analysis: Shielding Afghan civilians will be key
By ROBERT BURNS,AP National Security Writer AP - Saturday, June 13
WASHINGTON - The big goals of the new American general taking charge of the war in Afghanistan start with fixing a problem that bedeviled the man he is replacing: the repeated, inadvertent killing of civilians.
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Stanley McChrystal, the four-star Army general picked to provide the fresh thinking that Pentagon chief Robert Gates says is needed to win the war, will have at least one important new tool at his disposal _ some 21,000 additional U.S. ground troops.
The expanded presence of American forces may reduce the need for deadly airstrikes that can be effective in smashing Taliban fighters but all too frequently kill or maim civilians.
McChrystal is due in the capital, Kabul, this weekend, replacing Gen. David McKiernan, whom Gates fired. McChrystal stopped at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Friday to join Gates in consulting with allied defense ministers about NATO's role in Afghanistan.
Gates emphasized the imperative of avoiding civilian casualties, calling the deaths "one of our greatest strategic vulnerabilities." In his few public comments, McChrystal also has highlighted the problem.
McChrystal says he intends to run a classic counterinsurgency campaign. That means another of his key objectives will be to create distance between local Afghans and the hardcore Taliban fighters in order to win local support and gain better intelligence.
And he will aim to make better use of nonmilitary tools such as U.S. and other foreign civilian resources to improve basic government services.
Robert Scales, a retired Army two-star general who has advised U.S. commanders in Afghanistan, said in an interview Friday that he believes McChrystal will focus mainly on shifting emphasis from killing Taliban and al-Qaida fighters to protecting Afghans from those fighters _ and from unintended U.S. bombings.
"The metric has changed. The metric is no longer how much territory in Afghanistan do we control, but how effective are we in securing the people," Scales said. "Not how many bad guys do we kill or how many American casualties do we suffer, but how few Afghans are killed _ by both the bad guys and by us."
Just how McChrystal refocuses the military's mission may become more apparent when he completes the two-month assessment that Gates asked him to undertake upon his arrival in Kabul. With that assessment, McChrystal will then be expected to spell out how he intends to run the war.
Some broad elements are already clear. Among them:
_A revamped U.S.-led command structure. Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes it will give McChrystal additional authority and more ability to implement the strategy that President Barack Obama announced in late March.
For the first time, the U.S. commander will have a three-star American deputy to take more of the day-to-day burden. The three-star is Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez, who has been serving as Gates' top military assistant.
_More use of civilian experts, including U.S. agricultural specialists, to develop viable alternatives to the illicit poppy-growing business that Washington and its allies say is helping finance the Taliban resistance. Obama promised a "civilian surge" to help the Afghan government build democratic foundations. And he said the U.S. would seek a "new compact" with the government to crack down on corruption.
_ A "dream team" of U.S. military officers steeped in counterinsurgency and Afghanistan experience and expertise. In a reflection of the heightened priority that the Obama administration is giving Afghanistan, McChrystal was told he could pick any top U.S. assistants he wanted to help him in Kabul. Among them: Navy Rear Adm. Greg Smith, a seasoned public affairs specialist who will oversee a strengthened effort to communicate the allies' objectives and activities and to counter Taliban messages.
_An acceleration of the long, slow process of developing Afghan army and police forces. This will be one of the keys to bolstering the legitimacy of the central government and eventually enabling foreign forces to leave. The current goal of creating 134,000 Afghan forces may be doubled in coming years.
McChrystal also faces many unknowns, including the outcome of the Afghans' national election in August and the impact of the Pakistani army's intensified offensive against Taliban insurgency on their side of the border.
McChrystal will be part of an overhauled U.S. leadership team. It includes Karl Eikenberry, who retired from the Army as a three-star general in order to become U.S. ambassador to Kabul. He arrived last month.
Another new face is Navy Adm. James Stavridis, who was confirmed this week by the Senate as the new NATO commander in Europe. About half the coalition troops in Afghanistan are NATO soldiers. Stavridis will play a role in trying to persuade European government to provide more resources there.
Kimberly Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War, said McChrystal's arrival in Kabul is unlikely to result in immediate, measurable changes in how the coalition goes about fighting the war. She expects him to take several months to analyze conditions and build a plan for improving operations.
Although McChrystal is best known for his experience in leading special operations forces like Navy SEALs and Army Green Berets, that does not necessarily mean he will find a bigger or different role for those elite, shadowy forces in Afghanistan.
On the other hand, his background makes him well-suited to ensuring that they are put to optimal use.
___
EDITOR'S NOTE _ Robert Burns has covered national security and military affairs for The Associated Press since 1990.
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