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Pakistan cuts rates by 100 bps as inflation falls
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Pakistan cuts rates by 100 bps as inflation falls
Reuters - 2 hours 19 minutes ago
By Sahar Ahmed
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KARACHI, April 20 - Pakistan's central bank cut its key policy rate for the first time in more than six years on Monday and analysts said the move marked the start of a series of cuts as the economy stabilises and inflation falls.
The State Bank of Pakistan cut the discount rate by 100 basis points to 14 percent for the rest of the fiscal year ending on June 30, State Bank of Pakistan Governor Salim Raza said.
The discount rate, which was last reduced in 2002, was cut to stimulate an economy which had shown progress after nearing a balance of payments crisis last year.
"Pakistan's economy has made steady progress on its path towards macroeconomic stability," Raza said.
Inflation eased to a yearly 19.07 percent in March from a record high of 25.3 percent in August.
That was "still higher than desired," Raza said, adding that inflation was expected to come down to about 14 percent in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year.
Next year, it was expected to be 8 percent, he said.
The demand pressures depicted in core inflation has also eased as core inflation has come down by about 2.4 percent since its peak in October last year.
"The assessment that inflation will continue to fall persuades us that the state bank can now afford some relaxation in its monetary policy stance in favour of stimulating real economic activity," Raza told a news conference.
The central bank kept the discount rate unchanged at 15 percent in January after increasing it by 500 basis points in 2008.
"The State Bank of Pakistan took the first step today on what we think will be a long path of continued monetary easing," said Asad Farid, an economist at AKD Securities Ltd.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan, a vital U.S. ally in its efforts to bring stability to Afghanistan, is facing serious economic and security problems.
The government agreed to a $7.6 billion emergency International Monetary Fund stand-by loan in November to rescue it from a balance of payments crisis and looming default on its international debt.
The IMF in a report posted on its website said last week a rate cut now would be premature, but the option could be revisited at a later stage.
President Asif Ali Zardari secured more than $5 billion in aid last Friday after telling allies and donors in Tokyo he would step up the fight against Islamist militants.
Foreign exchange reserves have risen to $11.22 billion from a low of $6.6 billion recorded in November.
Raza said an increase in the state bank's foreign reserves by $4.3 billion between November and April and a projected increase in the bank's reserves to $9.1 billion by the end of June was a key indication of macro-economic stability.
Raza said the global recession was expected to hurt exports, while imports were lower on falling aggregate demand. The outlook for remittances from Pakistanis working abroad and foreign direct investment were unstable.
Unpredictable security conditions also clouded the economic outlook, he said.
Raza said that medium term recovery remains a challenge with regards to the structural issues of the business environment.
"More importantly, severe domestic power shortages and unpredictable security conditions complicate the outlook for rapid growth in productive activity in the economy," said Raza.
The central bank has forecast growth for the 2008/09 fiscal year ending in June at 2.5-3.5 percent. Pakistan posted growth of 5.8 percent in the 2007/08 fiscal year. (Additional reporting by Augustine Anthony; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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