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Q+A - South Korea hit again by FX crisis speculation
Reuters - 1 hour 58 minutes ago
By Yoo Choonsik
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SEOUL, Feb 18 - South Korea's government this week dismissed fears that the country faced a possible foreign-exchange crisis next month, but investors have been nervously buying up dollars just in case.
Following is a look at what triggered the latest turbulence and what the government can do to stabilize markets.
WHAT IS PROMPTING THE SPECULATION?
Investors are focusing on a shortage of dollars coming into the country because of a precipitous drop in exports combined with concerns that global lenders -- facing their own problems -- will start refusing to roll over maturing debt.
As the global recession deepens, lenders in advanced countries are under pressure to lend more at home and less to risky emerging economies.
There is concern that a deepening dollar shortage will push the won <KRW=> below its 11-year low of 1,525 per dollar set last November and make it even harder for companies to rollover their foreign debt.
The currency has lost 24 percent against the dollar, the worst in the region, since the global financial market meltdown began in earnest last September. It is now at a 10-week low.
ARE THERE MORE SPECIFIC ISSUES?
Dollar inflows are falling at an even faster pace than exports, which fell by a third last month. That appears to be because a substantial amount of dollars due from completed major ship orders have already been sold in forward trading.
South Korean shipbuilders are expected to deliver $54.4 billion worth of ships to foreign customers this year, but the actual dollar inflow will stand at just $38.7 billion, the Samsung Economic Research Institute estimated. And with the global economic downturn, fewer new shipbuilding orders are coming in.
Also, South Korean banks are reluctant to seek funding abroad, despite tentative signs of thaw in credit markets, they are still being asked to pay premiums of up to $7 on every $100 they borrow.
Dollar-funding costs for South Korean banks have edged up since last week when leading lender Woori Bank shocked investors by opting not to buy back $400 million of junior-ranked bonds ahead of maturity. [ID:nHKG259290]
WHY FEARS OF MARCH CRISIS?
Some analysts are targeting March as a potential crunch period. That is the end of the fiscal year for Japanese banks which may pull out funds before closing their books. It is also when foreign share investors bring back home dividends received from South Korean companies for 2008.
IS THE GOVERNMENT WORRIED?
It says the concerns are exaggerated and that South Korea, with about $200 billion in foreign exchange reserves, can meet dollar demand. [ID:nSEO38665]
But it admits that a dollar-funding squeeze could tighten in the face of renewed instability in global financial markets.
WHAT CAN IT DO?
The government has offered to provide a guarantee on up to $100 billion its banks borrow abroad. So far, none have taken up the offer and analysts say they need to be encouraged to use the scheme. Analysts say banks are holding back in the hope that market rates will fall.
It could ask the Bank of Japan to extend a $17 billion yen-won currency swap line beyond the April 30 deadline.
Seoul has already extended by six months a swap line it has with the U.S. Federal Reserve but could try to increase the amount beyond $30 billion by arguing hat it would otherwise it might be forced to sell its large holding in U.S. Treasuries.
As holder of the world's sixth-biggest foreign reserves, the authorities could resort again to massive currency intervention to try to lift the won and make it cheaper for its companies to pay off foreign debt.
HAVE CRUNCH FEARS HIT SOUTH KOREAN MARKETS BEFORE?
There was widespread speculation of an imminent foreign exchange crisis last September when an unusually large amount of government bonds held by foreign investors was set to mature. Officials repeatedly denied a crisis was coming. [ID:nSEO278019]
Subsequent concern over a lack of dollars in the market was the main factor driving down the won some 30 percent to an 11-year low by late November. [ID:nSEO210308]
Officials argue that South Korea, which barely averted sovereign default in late 1997 with an International Monetary Fund-led bailout, has been unjustly targeted whenever there is global financial instability.
NEWSLINKS:
* For South Korean emergency measures taken, see [ID:nSEO113694]
* For South Korean economic forecasts, see [ID:nSEO113430]
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