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RPT-UPDATE 2-S.Korea April consumer sentiment at 1-yr high
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RPT-UPDATE 2-S.Korea April consumer sentiment at 1-yr high
Reuters - 1 hour 37 minutes ago
By Seo Eun-kyung and Cheon Jong-woo
SEOUL, April 28 - South Korean consumer confidence jumped by a record margin to hit pre-financial crisis levels in April, central bank data showed on Tuesday, underpinning hopes that the worst for Asia's fourth-largest economy was over.
It adds to recent data that showed the economy just avoided slipping into its first recession in a decade in the first quarter, lifted by a raft of government stimulus measures, much of them aimed at the construction industry, plus rate cuts.
"The pace of recovery is surprisingly fast," said June Park, an economist at Woori Investment & Securities.
"It's now apparent that the economy has passed the worst and there will be no more rate cuts down the road. But the recovery will be very slow and we won't hear talk of tightening until late this year," Park said.
But Vice Finance Minister Hur Kyung-wook was more cautious saying that while South Korea would be among the first countries to recover from the current economic crisis, it was too soon to say the economy had hit bottom.
Some analysts said the relatively optimistic outlook should prove an additional boost to the local share and currency markets which have been recovering from a slump last year when investors fretted the country would struggle to financial its external liabilities because of the global credit crunch.
The won <KRW=> has risen 19 percent against the dollar since March 6 when it hit an 11-year low. It lost some 26 percent last year in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapsed in September.
Seoul shares <.KS11> have recovered about 20 percent this year after losing some 40 percent last year.
Most analysts agree the economy is bottoming out but are divided over the speed and duration of recovery. An outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and concerns it could develop into a pandemic is adding a new risk to the outlook for the global economy. [ID:nN27484099]
"The economy is likely to steadily recover. But if the swine flu hits Mexico, the U.S. and China, that will definitely hit Korean exports," said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment & Securities.
SENTIMENT INDEX
The Bank of Korea's consumer sentiment index, which measures sentiment in six categories, rose to 98 in April, the highest level since the second quarter of 2008, from 84 in March.
For a graphic, please click here:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/apr09/KR_SNTMNT0409.jpg
An index measuring the economic outlook for the next six months climbed to 100 in April from 64 in March, the highest reading since the third quarter of 2007, indicating many South Koreans had shaken off any lingering pessimism about a recovery.
"Consumer sentiment surged significantly ... in April amid growing views that the worst of the economic crisis is over," said Jun Sung-bum, an analyst at the central bank. "Given the time gap, actual consumer spending will likely increase in three to four months."
The central bank said in the release that a swing in the current account to a surplus and the stock market rally had reduced concerns about a deep economic downturn.
Last week, the Bank of Korea said the economy squeezed out growth of 0.1 percent in the first quarter, thereby averting two quarters of contraction that commonly defines a recession. The economy shrank 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter. [ID:nSEO295868]
With the improvement, the government plans to focus more on fiscal soundness from 2010 while continuing to support growth, the finance ministry said.
"We need to improve the fiscal balance and national debt, which are deteriorating while we recover from the global financial crisis. We need to make managing the rising deficit a priority," the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said in a budget policy statement.
It said it would try to minimise treasury bond issues from next year.
The government plans to launch an extra budget of 28.9 trillion won on top of the previously planned 217.5 trillion won this year to boost the economy.
The government also plans to issue a record of 81.6 trillion won in treasury bonds this year, compared with around 52 trillion won in 2008.
Since early October, the central bank has cut its base rate by a total of 3.25 percentage points to a record low of 2.00 percent. It next reviews rates on May 12 after pausing its rate-cutting cycle both in March and April.
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