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Pakistan should meet budget, c/a targets - finmin
Reuters - Friday, April 3
By Sahar Ahmed
KARACHI, April 2 - Pakistan should achieve its budget deficit and current account deficit targets for the 2008/09 fiscal year, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday, in further evidence that its economy is pulling back from crisis.
"The fiscal deficit target of 4.2 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) and the current account deficit of 5.9 percent of GDP is now achievable," the ministry said in a report on the economic situation from July to February.
The current account deficit ballooned to 8.4 percent of GDP in the fiscal year of 2007/08 and fiscal deficit was 7.4 percent of GDP.
Pakistan agreed in November to an IMF emergency loan package of $7.6 billion to avert a balance of payments crisis. It got a first tranche of $3.1 billion that month.
The IMF approved a second tranche of $848 million this week when it said the economy was gradually recovering from the macroeconomic and external imbalances of 2007 and 2008, and a programme aimed at restoring financial stability while protecting the poor was "firmly on track". [ID:nN30372351]
However, the Finance Ministry said the global financial crisis and domestic security environment could increase risks for the economy.
Militant violence has surged in nuclear-armed Pakistan since mid-2007, with numerous attacks on the security forces, government and Western targets.
Eight police cadets were killed and scores wounded in an attack in Lahore on Monday less than a month after a dozen gunmen attacked Sri Lanka's cricket team in the eastern city.
The Finance Ministry said the economic growth target of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent was still "getable" while inflation was most likely to be on target of an average of 20 percent for this fiscal year ending on June 30.
The economy grew by 5.8 percent in 2007/08.
Economic indicators had been showing signs of improvement since February, the ministry said.
"Early signs of improvement in economic variables such as inflation, foreign exchange reserves, import growth, and government borrowings from the SBP are evident," it said.
Annual inflation peaked at 25.3 percent in August and was 21.07 percent in February. Analysts and the ministry expect a significant drop in March.
"The persistent negativity in the SPI (sensitive price index) during the month of March 2009 reinforces optimism that the CPI inflation for March onwards will be sharply decelerating," the ministry said.
Foreign exchange reserves rose by $100 million to $10.26 billion in the week that ended on March 21, the central bank said last week.
Foreign reserves hit a record high of $16.5 billion in October 2007 but fell to $6.6 billion in November last year, largely because of a soaring import bill.
The latest foreign exchange reserves data is due later in the day. The $500 million from the World Bank and $848 million from the IMF received this week will be reflected in data next week.
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