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India industrial output jumps for seventh month
AFP - Saturday, September 12
NEW DELHI (AFP) - - India's industrial output climbed for a seventh month in a row in July driven by strong consumer demand, official data showed Friday, fuelling hopes of an economic rebound.
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India's industrial production jumped 6.8 percent from a year earlier following a revised 8.2 percent leap in June, figures from the Central Statistical Organisation for July showed.
Economists forecast that India's strong industrial performance will help offset the impact on overall economic growth of poor monsoon rains that are expected be 15 to 20 percent below average and are hurting crops.
The data was the latest in a series of encouraging figures pointing to recovery in Asia's third-largest economy, economists said.
But analysts also said the data could also mean a tightening of interest rates next year to control inflationary pressures that have been stoked by the weak monsoon which has pushed up food prices.
While the momentum of industrial output growth slowed from the previous month, "the important point is that the trend is up and the outlook remains generally encouraging", said HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde.
Manufacturing output, which accounts for 80 percent of industrial output, also grew by 6.8 percent from a year earlier in July after an 8.0 percent rise in June.
The industrial output rise was driven by inventory re-building and a pick-up in consumer demand, analysts said.
Output of consumer goods climbed by 8.8 percent, double the 4.4 percent rate for June. Consumer durables production has risen nearly 20 percent in the March to July period -- the highest rate since June 2006.
India's financial year runs from April 1 to March 31.
The strength in industrial production comes on the back of aggressive monetary easing that has reduced interest rates to record lows and government stimulus.
Figures late last month showed the economy grew by 6.1 percent year-on-year in the three months to June, picking up pace from the previous quarter when it expanded by 5.8 percent.
Analysts said the data signalled India's emergence from the global downturn, albeit at a slower rate than giant neighbour China which grew 7.9 percent in the same period.
China said Friday it was on track to achieve its target of eight percent economic growth in 2009 as a new flood of data suggested that massive stimulus spending was paying off.
India's Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla predicted this week the country's expansion for the current financial year would be in the same range as the 6.7 percent the country logged last year.
India's growth has fallen from the annual nine percent levels it clocked during the three previous years as a result of the global economic slump.
But recent figures such as sales of passenger cars, which jumped nearly 26 percent in August to 120,669 units from the same month a year earlier, has spurred expectations that India's economy could pick up pace.
The country's Congress government is seeking to steer growth back to at least nine percent -- the minimum it says is needed to make a dent in the country's widespread poverty.
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