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World Bank: China growth to slow, cuts forecast
By JOE McDONALD,AP Business Writer AP - 29 minutes ago
BEIJING - China's economic growth will slow to 7.5 percent next year, from about 9.4 percent expected for 2008, as the global financial crisis takes a greater toll on the world's fourth-largest economy, the World Bank said Tuesday.
The multilateral lender cut its forecast for 2009 growth from 9.2 percent but said Beijing's multibillion-dollar stimulus plan will help smooth the sharp edges of steep declines in global and domestic demand.
China's downturn _ signs of which emerged in the third quarter _ will worsen in the first half of 2009 as exports weaken, World Bank economist Louis Kuijs said as the bank issued a quarterly economic report.
China has been relatively unaffected by the global crisis so far because its banks are healthy and exports are strong but "we will see that impact intensify in 2009," Kuijs said.
Conditions should improve later in 2009 but any firm forecast was difficult amid the global turmoil, he said.
Beijing's stimulus plan announced Nov. 9 should help to shield China from the global downturn by buoying growth and employment, said the World Bank's China representative, David Dollar. The $586 billion plan calls for injecting money into the economy through spending on construction, tax cuts and aid to the poor and farmers.
"We are confident that China has the tools to keep its growth rate at a healthy level and most importantly to create about the number of jobs it needs," Dollar said.
The government announced the stimulus after China's growth slowed to 9 percent in the latest quarter from 11.9 percent last year. The unexpectedly sharp downturn alarmed communist leaders, who worry about job losses _ especially in export industries, which have been hit hard by weak global demand _ and possible unrest.
Kuijs said Beijing has room to cut interest rates further and needs to take additional steps to stimulate growth as spending by consumers and companies weakens.
"We feel that confidence and fundamentals for the private sector have weakened quite a bit over the past half-year. We are less optimistic about private sector consumption than we were a half-year ago," Kuijs said.
Weaker export prospects and a sharp downturn in real estate sales have made private companies reluctant to expand and hire new workers, he said.
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