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IMF loan approval underpins Pakistani rupee recovery
Reuters - 51 minutes ago
By Sahar Ahmed
KARACHI, Nov 25 - The Pakistani rupee extended gains in early trade on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund approved a $7.6 billion loan to avert a balance of payments crisis and the government defaulting on its international debt obligations.
Pakistan will immediately have access to $3.1 billion under the 23-month facility, with the rest phased in subject to quarterly review, the fund said.
The package means Pakistan will be able to cover an international sovereign bond maturing in February.
"The rupee is strengthening as the IMF is going to immediately release $3.1 billion for us," said a currency dealer in Karachi.
The rupee <PKR=> was quoted trading at 78.55/65 to the dollar at 9:54 a.m. , compared with Monday's close of 78.90/79.
The currency has recovered 7.4 percent from an all time low of 84.40 struck on Oct. 17, as the markets anticipated an IMF rescue, and the central bank continued to dip into reserves to help meet import requirements.
But the rupee is still down 21.58 percent since the beginning of the year, while central bank reserves dwindled to the equivalent of just nine weeks of imports.
The IMF said "the State Bank of Pakistan will pursue a flexible exchange rate policy, with intervention in the foreign exchange market geared toward achieving the programme's reserve targets and smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility."
The sharp fall in oil prices to below $54 a barrel has also helped Pakistan, and its currency.
The rupee could face pressure in the medium term if the current account deficit is not reduced, but the slump in oil prices will go a long way to help, analysts said.
Pakistan's current account deficit virtually doubled in the first four months of the 2008/09 fiscal year to $5.9 billion, compared with $3 billion the same period a year ago.
The import bill dipped to $3.46 billion in October from $3.8 billion in September due to lower prices for oil and commodities.
Aside from curbing the current account deficit, the IMF also said that Pakistan would aggressively trim its fiscal deficit, halt central bank finance of government spending.
Specifically, the fiscal deficit will be trimmed to 4.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2008/2009 and 3.3 percent in 2009/2010, compared with 7.4 percent in the fiscal year to June 2008.
The IMF also said the central bank may further tighten monetary policy in order to control inflation, currently running at 25 percent.
The Fund has targeted a reduction in inflation to 6 percent by mid-2010.
The State Bank of Pakistan raised interest rates by 200 basis points to 15 percent earlier this month.
Analysts are expecting another hike of 200 basis points in the next monetary policy review due in January.
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