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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Singapore Asia Pacific World NZ economy unexpectedly slows; rates seen on hold Reuters - Thursday, September 23 Send IM Story Print * Growth slows, dragged lower by manufacturing, weak demand * Outlook patchy and uncertain * Interest rates seen on hold for rest of year * NZ dollar falls nearly half a cent, debt rallies (Adds finance minister, Fonterra payout, graphic, update market) By Mantik Kusjanto WELLINGTON, Sept 23 - New Zealand's economy slowed unexpectedly in second quarter as manufacturing activity fell, further clouding its outlook and backing views that interest rates will remain on hold at least until early next year. Gross domestic product rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in the three months to June, well below economists' 0.8 percent median forecast in a Reuters poll and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 0.9 percent projection. Domestic consumption, which makes up around 60 percent of the economy, was flat, after growing in the previous five quarters, while manufacturing activity fell 4 percent. Analysts said the surprising weakness and the added impact of a recent strong earthquake would dent the economy's near term prospects and reduce the need for higher rates. "With no real signs of a material pickup in Q3, and given the impact of the earthquake, we're in for further weakness in the near term," said ANZ head of market economics Khoon Goh. "It will keep the RBNZ on hold, although we still expect a pickup in activity in 2011." The New Zealand dollar <NZD=D4> fell nearly half a cent to a low of $0.7307 from around $0.7360, before trimming its losses to $0.7320. But on the cross rate against the neighbouring Australian dollar it slipped 1 percent to a five-month low of A$0.7650 <NZDAUD=R> on the divergent rate outlooks. Australia has been enjoying strong growth, fueled largely by China's demand for resources, and further rate rises are expected from its central bank this year to keep inflation in check. New Zealand interest rate futures prices <0#NBB:> rose and swap yields <NZDIRS> were up to 8 basis points lower as investors scaled back expectations of future central bank rate rises. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^ For a table on GDP details [ID:nWEL004176] For an instant view from economists [ID:nSGE68J072] For a graphic on NZ GDP and official cash rate http://link.reuters.com/ven94p ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^ BUMPY ROAD Finance Minister Bill English said the economy was growing but the outlook is bumpy. "I expect some volatility in the next few quarters of GDP data," he said. Growth in the quarter was driven by house building and forestry, but the gains were offset by manufacturers running down inventories at the fastest rate in five quarters, while drought dented agricultural production. Rising exports, led by strong commodity prices for dairy and wood products, supported growth with solid demand from two key trading partners, Australia and China. Consumers have been cautious about spending in the face of slow wage growth and a rise in unemployment, which has also dampened business confidence. A 7.1 magnitude quake in the country's second biggest city Christchurch and surrounding area on Sept. 4 is set to cast a further shadow over the economy's near-term outlook. The Treasury department has estimated third-quarter growth will be cut by around 0.4 percent because of the quake, but rebuilding work will boost growth in next year and 2012 by 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent respectively. See [ID:nSGE68C02D] The uncertain outlook has prompted the RBNZ to scale back its growth forecast for the year to March 2011 to 2.8 percent from a 3.5 percent projection in June. The bank left its cash rate unchanged last week amid a soft economic outlook and said future rate rises would probably be slower than previously expected. [ID:nSGE68F00F] All 18 economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to hold rates at 3 percent at its Oct. 28 review, with the consensus that the next rise will be in the first quarter of 2011. [NZ/POLL] Reflecting the tepid recovery and weak growth data, the amount of tightening seen over the next 12 months fell to 54 basis points from 66 basis points. <CSRBNZ1Y=CSAU>. New Zealand-based Fonterra lifted some gloom from the market, however, as the the world's largest dairy exporter raised its final payout to farmers for the year to July and maintained its 2010/11 forecast. [ID:nWLF004829] Recommend Send IM Story Print Related Articles China PM rebuffs US demands for currency revalue AFP - 19 minutes ago Australia 2009-10 budget outcome to be released Reuters - 22 minutes ago JSW Steel to contract coking coal in Oct-Dec at $200/tn Reuters - 25 minutes ago Turkish bonds weaken after reserve rates heightened Reuters - 26 minutes ago Philippine c.bank says in fx mkt to reduce volatility Reuters - 31 minutes ago News Search Top Stories Facebook boss to make $100 mln school gift: report UN puts the bat in the global spotlight Obama vows 'big hearted, hard headed' overseas aid plan Christoph Franz named new Lufthansa chief Romania sticks to austerity plan, could delay eurozone entry: Basescu More Top Stories » Related Full Coverage China Economychina economy All Full Coverage » ADVERTISEMENT Most Popular Most Viewed Most Recommended 'Extinct' frogs haven't croaked -- scientists Gold hits new record above $1,290 Atom smasher scientists spot potential new discovery: CERN Siemens to book huge charge on healthcare unit Anti-Islam rant sees far-right fly high across Europe More Most Viewed » Climate: New study slashes estimate of icecap loss US pastor puts Koran-burning on hold 'Time bomb' superbug requires global response: doctor Japanese rider Tomizawa dies in San Marino Moto2 GP Vitamin B 'could delay Alzheimer's onset' More Most Recommended » Elsewhere on Yahoo! 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