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US private-sector jobs boom spurs recovery hopes
AFP - 1 hour 25 minutes ago
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US private-sector jobs boom spurs recovery hopes
WASHINGTON (AFP) - – A reported jobs boom in December spurred hopes the US labor market is on the mend Wednesday ahead of key official data, but analysts warned employment has a long way to recover from the recession.
The private sector added a seasonally adjusted 297,000 jobs in December, more than triple the number created in November, private payrolls firm ADP said.
The surprisingly strong rise soared above the consensus forecast of 100,000 new private-sector payrolls, and marked the fourth straight month of overall gains.
"This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests nonfarm private employment grew very strongly in December, at a pace well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate," ADP said in a statement.
The firm revised slightly downward the November increase, to 92,000 from an initial estimate of 93,000, but said that December gains were seen across all businesses measured.
"Today's last report of the year 2010 shows the biggest increase in ADP employment since the creation of the index in 2001 and thus brings positive news for the employment situation," said Thomas Julien, US economist at Natixis.
"All in all, the labor market seems to be on track to improve overall, now approaching a more desirable pace to gradually offset the 8.5 million jobs lost during the crisis," he added.
The ADP report came ahead of Friday's keenly awaited official monthly jobs data, a key gauge of the economy's health that includes government payrolls.
Economists generally believe the world's largest economy needs to create 200,000 jobs a month for a sustained period to make a dent in the unemployment rate.
"The labor market is coming around, though an extended period of robust job gains are likely to be quite a few months off," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.
Naroff predicted an extended period of solid, 200,000-plus a month job gains would take hold before the second half of next year.
Stubbornly high unemployment near 10 percent remains a major challenge to sustainable economic recovery more than a year after the worst recession in generations ended.
The strong ADP numbers boosted expectations for the Labor Department's December jobs report Friday. According to the consensus forecast, the unemployment rate slipped to 9.7 percent from 9.8 percent in November, and the economy added nonfarm 135,000 jobs, up from 39,000.
But analysts cautioned the ADP report has a spotty record in predicting the government's monthly labor figures, and that December typically sees a burst of holiday-season retail hiring.
"Seasonal factors for December always need to be viewed with suspicion but this is so far away from other numbers that something other than seasonals must be at work," said Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics.
Zach Pandl at Nomura Global Economics noted the ADP measures the number of people in firms' payroll systems, while the official data measures the number of paid jobs.
"Companies often keep all employees on the payroll all year -- even if they are not being paid -- for tax purposes," he added.
Most of the increase in the ADP December report was in the vast service-providing sector, which added 270,000 jobs in the 11th consecutive monthly gain and the largest monthly increase in the history of the report.
The goods-producing sector created 27,000 jobs, the second consecutive monthly gain and the largest since February 2006. In the manufacturing sector, a key driver of the recovery, employment rose 23,000, also the second monthly gain in a row.
Another report also pointed Wednesday to a labor market on the mend.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said planned layoffs plunged 34 percent in December from November, to the lowest monthly total since June 2000.
After hitting a seven-year high in 2009, downsizing activity in 2010 fell to its lowest level since 1997.
John Challenger, chief executive of the firm, warned that re-engaged job seekers, who were not counted among the unemployed while not searching, and newly laid-off government workers, could put upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
"Unfortunately, the government sector is likely to see heavy job cuts again in 2011 as the budget shortfalls that existed in 2010 continue into the new year," he said.
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