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US private hiring boosts hopes for jobs report
AFP - Thursday, January 6
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US private hiring boosts hopes for jobs report
WASHINGTON (AFP) - – A surprising surge in private hiring has spurred hopes that the US government's jobs data this week will confirm the ailing labor market is on the road to recovery.
The private sector added a seasonally adjusted 297,000 jobs in December, more than triple the number created in November, private payrolls firm ADP said in a report published Wednesday.
The jump soared above the consensus forecast of 100,000 new private-sector payrolls, and marked the fourth straight month of overall gains.
"This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests nonfarm private employment grew very strongly in December, at a pace well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate," ADP said in a statement.
ADP revised slightly downward the November increase, to 92,000 from an initial estimate of 93,000, but said that December gains were seen across all businesses measured.
The private-sector report came ahead of Thursday's weekly unemployment benefit claims numbers, to be followed by the crucial Labor Department report Friday.
The keenly awaited monthly jobs data is considered a key gauge of the economy's health and it includes government payrolls.
The strong ADP numbers boosted expectations for the Labor Department's December jobs report.
The consensus forecast on nonfarm job creation rose after the ADP report to 150,000, from 135,000. Only 39,000 jobs were added in November. The unemployment rate was projected to have slipped a tenth of a point to 9.7 percent.
Stubbornly high unemployment remains a major challenge to sustainable economic recovery more than a year after the worst recession in generations ended.
"Today's last report of the year 2010 shows the biggest increase in ADP employment since the creation of the index in 2001 and thus brings positive news for the employment situation," said Thomas Julien, US economist at Natixis.
"All in all, the labor market seems to be on track to improve overall, now approaching a more desirable pace to gradually offset the 8.5 million jobs lost during the crisis," he added.
Economists generally believe the world's largest economy needs to create 200,000 jobs a month for a sustained period to make a dent in the unemployment rate.
"The labor market is coming around, though an extended period of robust job gains are likely to be quite a few months off," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.
Naroff predicted an extended period of solid, 200,000-plus a month job gains would take hold before the second half of next year.
But analysts cautioned the ADP report has a spotty record in predicting the government's monthly labor figures, and that December typically sees a burst of holiday-season retail hiring.
"Seasonal factors for December always need to be viewed with suspicion but this is so far away from other numbers that something other than seasonals must be at work," said Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics.
Zach Pandl at Nomura Global Economics noted the ADP measures the number of people in firms' payroll systems, while the official data measures the number of paid jobs.
"Companies often keep all employees on the payroll all year -- even if they are not being paid -- for tax purposes," he added.
Most of the increase in the ADP December report was in the vast service-providing sector, which added 270,000 jobs in the 11th consecutive monthly gain and the largest monthly increase in the history of the report.
Separately, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that planned layoffs plunged 34 percent in December from November, to the lowest monthly total since June 2000.
After hitting a seven-year high in 2009, downsizing activity in 2010 fell to its lowest level since 1997.
"Unfortunately, the government sector is likely to see heavy job cuts again in 2011 as the budget shortfalls that existed in 2010 continue into the new year," said John Challenger, the firm's chief executive.
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