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Dong devaluation no worry for Thai exports
ANN - Sunday, February 13
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Bangkok (The Nation (Thailand)/ANN) - Thursday's devaluation of the dong is expected to have only a limited impact on Thailand's export competitiveness, given that much of Vietnam's export structure is based on agricultural products, which now account for only 10 per cent of Thailand's exports.
"The overlapping export area is small," said Mathee Supapong, director of the Bank of Thailand's domestic economy office. "Vietnam has devalued the currency several times and our export activities have been going well. Indeed, the devaluation did not add longterm competitiveness to Vietnam, as it will increase the cost of imports."
Songtham Pinto, director of the central bank's office of macroeconomics, added that the small impact was attributable to the small overlapping area of exports from both countries. Top export items from Thailand are now electronics/electrical appliances, automotive products, chemicals and processed foods.
Meanwhile, food and agricultural products from Vietnam are also not direct competitors to Thailand's, because of different consumer targets. Vietnam itself also needs to reduce the export of some agricultural products such as rice to meet higher domestic consumption amid lower production output.
"On the macro picture, the impact is tiny. On the micro picture, we need to look at the impact on each export item," Songtham said.
Siam Commercial Bank's Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) agreed that the devaluation would have only a slight impact on the competitiveness of Thai exports, because of high inflationary pressures. While the dong weakened 8.5 per cent year on year, inflation was 12.2 per cent. The effective real exchange rate thus appreciated 3.7 per cent. The baht in effect strengthened 10.7 per cent, as the currency appreciated 7.7 per cent year on year with 3 per cent inflation.
Meanwhile, the EIC noted that the structures of the two countries' exports and their key export markets were somewhat different. In the first quarter of 2010, Asean and China consumed 40 per cent of Thailand's exports and the United States and Europe consumed 36 per cent of Vietnam's exports. Thailand and Vietnam compete in terms of food and agricultural products and textiles, but the quality of their products is different. Meanwhile, these overlapping products account for a small portion of Thailand's exports.
On Thursday, the State Bank of Vietnam fixed the reference rate for the currency at 20,693 per US dollar, from 18,932. The trading band was narrowed to 1 per cent on either side of the rate, compared with 3 per cent previously.
This is the fourth devaluation in 15 months. It takes place with the country's inflation rate at the fastest in almost two years, and with the International Monetary Fund describing its foreigncurrency reserves as being "low".
Vietnam's devaluation is aimed at addressing the currentaccount deficit. While the trade deficit ballooned to US$13 billion (Bt400 billion) in 2010, the currentaccount deficit was as high as 56 per cent of gross domestic product.
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