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Thursday, 7 June 2012 - Malaysia's Najib seen delaying election, boosting spending |
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See the best of Reuters photography.  See more | Photo caption  Enterprise in NY The Enterprise shuttle floats by Manhattan.  Slideshow  D-Day: A look back Images from the Allied landings at Normandy.  Slideshow  Malaysia's Najib seen delaying election, boosting spending Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Insight: Malaysia government losing Chinese support, putting reforms at risk Sun, Jun 3 2012 Malaysia PM's popularity slips ahead of election: poll Fri, Jun 1 2012 Malaysia launches $3 billion IPO with eye on poll Thu, May 31 2012 Citizen backlash keeps Malaysia rare earth plant on hold Wed, May 9 2012 Related Topics World » Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak (C) smiles after he hit a traditional gong near President and Chief Executive Officer of Malaysia's state oil firm Petronas, Shamsul Azhar Abbas (2nd L), and President of the International Gas Union, Abdul Rahim Hashim (L), clapping their hands as they mark the opening of the World Gas Conference 2012 in Kuala Lumpur June 4, 2012. Credit: Reuters/Bazuki Muhammad By Niluksi Koswanage KUALA LUMPUR | Thu Jun 7, 2012 1:49am EDT KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia is planning a fresh round of cash handouts to poorer families in August, government sources said, as Prime Minister Najib Razak likely delays elections until late this year to shore up support among undecided voters. Two senior officials told Reuters the government is considering giving out payments to 5.2 million low-income households ahead of a Muslim festival in August. Najib would then present a generous election budget in September before announcing an election date, they said. Speculation has been swirling for a year over the timing of what is expected to be a fiercely fought election, which Najib must call by next March as he seeks to improve on the ruling coalition's dismal showing at the polls four years ago. A June or July poll had been the favorite, but Najib appears to have calculated that he needs more time -- and more handouts -- to maximize his chances of regaining the two-thirds parliamentary majority that the government lost in 2008. "The window for October elections is wide open now. This is the next window after July," said one senior government source who declined to be identified. "This is a risky election and the prime minister does not want to take any chances. He has to prove to the people that the government will be there for them. So he has to balance his reforms with social economic help," he said. Another government source said one of the suggested dates for the election was October 14, just two weeks after Najib, who is also finance minister, presents the 2013 budget in parliament. The decision to delay the election carries risks. A worsening global downturn could impact the trade-dependent economy in the coming months, dampening the feel-good factor generated by handouts. DEFICIT RISKS Uncertainty over the timing could also hit the economy as companies hold back on spending, while an overly generous budget would sharpen concerns over Malaysia's chronic budget deficit. "After September is what we have been told for the timing of the elections," a senior official in the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO), which dominates the Barisan Nasional (BN) ruling coalition, told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "We are on red alert but nothing is happening for now. The leadership is looking at an election budget to sweeten the deal," the source added. Fiscal sweeteners this year have included pay rises for civil servants and cash payments for students, adding to strains on finances. Cash handouts to low-income households earlier this year accounted for 2.6 billion ringgit ($821 million) alone. Fitch ratings agency said this year that Malaysia, which is heavily dependent on oil revenues and whose spending is bloated by food and fuel subsidies, needed structural reforms to narrow a budget deficit that hit about 5.4 percent last year. The government had aimed to cut the deficit to 4.7 percent this year, but that looks tough to reach as economic growth slows to around 4 percent from last year's 5.1 percent. Najib aims to cut the budget gap to about 3 percent by 2015. "If they continue dishing out generous handouts, I'm afraid this target will be delayed," said Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin, chief economist at Bank Islam. "BIG GAMBLE" Shaun Levine, a Washington-based analyst at political risk research firm Eurasia Group, said Najib may be planning to offer budget goodies to be handed out only if the BN returns to power. That plan has shades of Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's longest serving prime minister, who in 1999 announced a generous budget and promptly called elections that he won. "It is a big gamble for Najib," said Levine. "But I think at the end of the day he is looking at the lowest common denominator, basically writing off the larger Chinese vote in favor of the Indian and rural/lower class Malay votes." Ethnic Chinese voters who make up a quarter of the 28 million population have deserted the BN in recent years, partly due to dissatisfaction over the slow pace of reforms to affirmative-action policies that favor majority ethnic Malays. Najib has reached out to middle-class, urban voters, many of whom are Chinese, by rolling back repressive security laws. But his reforms have not gone far enough for many and he may end up relying heavily on the BN's traditional support base -- poor majority Malay voters in rural areas. A survey by the Merdeka Center polling firm last week showed Najib's approval rating fell slightly to 65 percent in May, as a rise in support from Malays helped offset a slide in Chinese and Indian backing. Despite the three-party opposition's strong gains in the last election, most analysts expect it to fall short of taking over the government. The BN only needs to win nine seats more than it did in 2008 to regain its coveted "super majority". UMNO's secretary general, Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor, said the mood within the party was upbeat and that Najib had not miscalculated by waiting too long. "We're expecting a better budget than last year. A budget for the people," he told Reuters. (Additional reporting by Stuart Grudgings and Siva Sithraputhran; Editing by Stuart Grudgings and Nick Macfie) World Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. 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Add yours using the box above.   Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Podcast   Newsletters   Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use AdChoices Copyright Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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