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US trade deficit widens to 18-month high
 
 
  
 
 AFP - Wednesday, July 14
 
 
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WASHINGTON (AFP) - – The US trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May to the highest level in 18 months, the government said, sparking fears of slowing growth in the world's largest economy.
 
Analysts warned that more cash flowing out of the United States could trim growth estimates and -- amid a widening trade gap with China -- could fuel a currency spat with Beijing.
 
The US government has called on Beijing to allow the yuan to appreciate more rapidly after allegations it was kept low for trade advantage.
 
The overall US trade gap for goods and services rose nearly five percent to 42.3 billion dollars from 40.3 billion dollars in April, the Commerce Department reported.
 
Imports climbed nearly three percent to an 19-month high of 194.5 billion dollars in May, while exports rose 2.4 percent to a 20-month high of 152.3 billion dollars.
 
The fresh data baffled economists, who had expected the May deficit to fall to 39.4 billion dollars.
 
They estimate the deficit would have slashed between one and two percentage points from economic growth in the April-June quarter.
 
"Our current forecast has real GDP (gross domestic product) rising 3.0 percent at an annual rate last quarter, but the risks are tilted toward a smaller gain," said Aaron Smith, a senior economist for Moody's Economy.com.
 
He said the deficit could shave one percentage point from the second quarter economic growth.
 
Nigel Gault, chief US economist for IHS Global Insight, said the deficit suggested that second quarter growth was in the 3.0-3.5 percent region rather than the 3.8 percent rate that his firm had previously expected.
 
"And we expect growth to slow to an average 2.5 percent pace in the second half of the year," he said.
 
The US economy grew by 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010 but analysts expect expansion to slow in the second half of the year amid high unemployment caused by the worst recession in decades, and Europe's fiscal troubles.
 
While the trade deficit could blunt US growth, it still offered hope for global economic recovery as US consumer spending reemerges as a key driver of world growth.
 
The import surge was fueled by rises in consumer goods, motor vehicles, parts and engines, as well as capital goods.
 
Exports rose on the back of capital goods such as machinery, aircraft and computer accessories.
 
Some analysts said the import jump might be positive for the US economy as it reflected greater demand from US consumers, whose spending plays a critical role for economic growth.
 
Since trade is "driven by a surge in imports rather than export weakness, the overall tone of the report is quite positive," said analyst Aneta Markowska of Societe Generale.
 
But the new data also showed the politically sensitive trade deficit with China widening to 22.3 billion dollars in May from 19.3 billion dollars in April, a development that could fuel calls for a rapid yuan appreciation.
 
It was the biggest trade gap with the Asian giant since last October.
 
Three weeks after the Chinese central bank vowed to loosen its currency controls amid mounting international pressure, the US Treasury said last week the yuan remained "undervalued" against the dollar.
 
"To keep Chinese products artificially inexpensive on US store shelves and discourage US exports into China, Beijing undervalues the yuan by 40 percent," said Peter Morici, a business professor at the University of Maryland.
 
"Simply, Beijing views its exchange rate policy as a tool for domestic economic development; but this policy imposes high, chronic unemployment on the United States and other western countries," he said.
 
The deterioration in the trade balance also came as President Barack Obama stepped up a campaign to double exports within five years to spark American growth and employment.
 
"Unless President Obama resolves the resurgent US trade crisis, he won't encourage sustainable US recovery, said Alan Tonelson, a research fellow at the US Business & Industry Council of mainly family-owned domestic manufacturing companies.
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
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