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China central bank says downturn could worsen
By ELAINE KURTENBACH,AP Business Writer AP - 2 hours 39 minutes ago
SHANGHAI - China's central bank says the country's economic downturn could worsen and warned the risk of deflation is "quite big" amid collapsing consumer demand.
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"Downward pressure on economic growth is clearly increasing," the People's Bank of China said in a quarterly report. It warned that pressure for prices to fall was strong amid shrinking demand.
"The risk of deflation is quite big," said the report, issued Monday and posted on the bank's Web site.
The bank's report could temper expectations that China's slump might be bottoming out and a recovery might be taking shape.
Chinese leaders say the government's efforts to break out of the slump are starting to take effect, pointing to data that suggest manufacturing and other indicators are improving.
Inflation, which spiked to 12-year high of 8.7 percent last year, fell to 1 percent in January, prompting fears of deflation. Wholesale prices fell for a second straight month, declining by 3.3 percent _ a phenomenon that can indicate an impending fall in consumer prices.
While falling prices might seem welcome, a long spell of deflation can be damaging as consumers put off purchases in expectation of lower prices, prompting companies to cut jobs and investment.
The central bank gave no details of its outlook on China's economic performance but said it would maintain an "appropriately eased monetary policy" to support growth.
Until July, the bank noted, the prevailing concern was with surging inflation. But a sharp decline in consumer demand left many industries with excess inventory and too much production capacity _ a chronic problem even before the downturn.
China's torrid economic growth slowed to a seven-year low of 9 percent in 2008.
But the central bank also warned of potential longer-term risks from inflation due to the worldwide effort to expand credit and increase liquidity in the global financial system.
AP Business Writer Joe McDonald in Beijing contributed to this report.
___
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Chinese central bank (in Chinese): http://www.pbc.gov.cn
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