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Japan nearly doubles economic growth forecast
AFP - 2 hours 28 minutes ago
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TOKYO (AFP) - – Japan on Tuesday nearly doubled its economic growth forecast, as it adopted a long-term overhaul designed to slash the highest levels of debt in the industrialised world.
The Cabinet Office said it expects the economy to grow around 2.6 percent for the year to March 2011, from an earlier projection of 1.4 percent.
That would see Japan achieve expansion of more than two percent for the first time since 2006, it said. For the fiscal year to March 2012, the government forecast 2.0 percent growth.
"Thanks to the government's stimulus packages, strengthening in business profitability and improvements in employment and household income are spreading to an increase in private demand," the Cabinet Office said.
"If this cycle continues, Japan's economy is expected to go on a track towards an autonomous recovery," it said in a twice-yearly report.
However, it warned that "continuing efforts to tackle deflation are necessary", with the overall consumer price index not expected to stop falling before fiscal 2011. Prices in fiscal 2010 are expected to drop 0.9 percent.
The relatively positive outlook comes as booming overseas demand for cars, high-tech products and factory parts combine with a stimulus-driven domestic picture, raising hopes Japan may eventually see a self-sustaining recovery.
A fourth straight quarter of expansion saw gross domestic product in the January-March period grow at an annualised 5.0 percent.
Separately, the government unveiled a long-term fiscal management policy that aims to achieve a primary balance surplus in fiscal 2020 in a bid to avoid a Greece-style debt crisis.
Achieving surplus in the primary balance -- the budgetary balance excluding debt servicing costs and revenue from bond issuance -- is key to efforts to eventually curb government debt.
Japan's primary balance in fiscal 2010 is expected to show a loss of 30.8 trillion yen (338 billion dollars).
Prime Minister Naoto Kan pledged earlier this month an ambitious overhaul to reduce the country's massive public debt, which at around 200 percent of GDP is the highest level of any industrialised nation.
Under the latest policy, the government will set the cap on new government bond issuance in fiscal 2011 below 44 trillion yen (484 billion dollars), the level planned for the current year from April.
In the next three years to fiscal 2013, the government plans to cap budget spending below around 71 trillion yen, the level also planned for the current fiscal year from April.
"I'm confident we can win the confidence of the markets" with this plan, said economy and consumer affairs minister Satoshi Arai.
"I want to be clear that our country is in a different situation to Greece and Hungary," Arai said, citing Japan's current account surplus and large financial assets.
With around 95 percent of the debt held by domestic investors, Japan has enjoyed low interest on its borrowing as private sector savings have kept the nation afloat since its stock market crash of 1990.
The government also aims to come up with a detailed drastic reform for the taxation system. Kan has not ruled out discussing a doubling of the five-percent sales tax to help bring down Japan's huge public debt.
The prime minister announced last week a 10-year economic growth strategy centred on green technology, health care, tourism and closer links with Asia, hoping to create five million jobs.
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