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WRAPUP 2-Taiwan exports slump at slower pace in May
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WRAPUP 2-Taiwan exports slump at slower pace in May
Reuters - Tuesday, June 9
* Exports fall less intensive but remains deep
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* Improvements seen in U.S., China, Europe and Japan
* Central bank says concerned with core CPI
By Lee Chyen Yee
TAIPEI, June 8 - Taiwan's exports in May fell by almost a third from a year earlier, however the fall was slightly less than expected as a slump in demand from the island's major trading partners showed tentative signs of easing.
Falls in exports to the United States and Europe improved from April, when declines in both markets were the weakest in years. China's buying slump was less steep, while falls in Japan braked sharply. A drop in electronics exports also eased.
In a further sign of improvement, DBS economist Ma Tieying calculated that Taiwan's May exports rose a seasonally adjusted 5.8 percent from April, the first growth since February.
Still, the annual fall in overall exports of 31.4 percent showed global demand remained weak, suggesting a recovery was still some way off even if consensus is growing that the worst of the world-wide slump has hit bottom.
"Numbers are still soaked in negative territory," said Sue Ann Lee, an economist at Forecast in Singapore. "And while there may be signs that data in key Asian export countries have somewhat seen a bottom, the question now is how long this export downturn is going to last. With the current sluggish environment, we are likely to see exports weakness continuing for a couple of months before we see a recovery."
Taiwan's economy contracted at a record pace of more than 10 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, keeping the economy deep in recession as exports demand slumped globally.
The central bank has slashed its policy rate to a record low of 1.25 percent, in line with a rapid spree of rate cuts by authorities world wide as policy makers scrambled to support their economies in the face of the worst global downturn in decades.
However, in an acknowledgement that the worst of the global slump may be over, the head of Taiwan's central bank, Perng Fai-nan, said on Monday he would closely monitor core consumer prices.
The comment reinforced the view that the central bank is done cutting rates. [ID:nTP225807]
It cut rates seven straight times between September and February as it fought to shield the economy from the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse last year of Lehman Brothers.
MIXED SIGNALS ON RECOVERY
The exports slump in May of 31.4 percent was slightly smaller than the median forecast in a Reuters poll for a decline of 34.0 percent and compared with April's slide of 34.3 percent.
Neighbouring South Korea's exports fell 28.3 percent during the same period, steeper than forecasts. [ID:nSEO370247]
"Taiwan's exports were better than expectations, but exports in South Korean in the same month were worse than expectations. These mixed signs are normal when the world economy has just started to recover," said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS in Singapore.
"I think part of the reason is because Taiwan's firms benefitted from China's economy. Besides, the South Korea's won had depreciated sharply previously, but the gap between the won and the Taiwan dollar has been decreasing."
Taiwan's May imports slumped 39.1 percent from a year earlier, broadly in line with expectations for a fall of 39.2 percent and compared with a drop in April of 41.2 percent.
May exports totalled $16.17 billion and imports were $13.01 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $3.17 billion, bigger than a forecast of $2.6 billion.
China exports dropped 30.0 percent from a year earlier, a modest improvement from a 33.6 percent fall in April's data.
U.S. shipments fell 28.0 percent, after falling in April 33.7 percent, which was the biggest drop since September 2001.
European shipments slumped 36.3 percent, marking a slightly smaller fall than 37.0 percent in April, which was the largest fall since records began in 1989.
"China's policy of encouraging the rural population to buy more home appliances is helping Taiwan's exports. So we're seeing some real demand coming from there," said chief statistician Lin Lee-jen. "U.S. and Europe demand remains weak."
Japanese demand in May fell 24 percent from a year earlier, improving from April's 32.3 percent fall, which finance ministry officials said was due to rising shipments in information technology products, plastics and chemicals.
Overseas sales of electronics fell 14.3 percent in May from a year earlier, easing from a fall of 21.3 percent in April.
LINKS: > For more analyst comments........[ID:nTP170311] > For a graphic on Taiwan's export trend
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/069/TW_EXP0609.jpg > For a breakdown on trade data....[ID:nTP174985] > For previous stories on trade.......[TWEXP=ECI] (Additional reporting by Jeanny Kao and Ralph Jennings; Writing by Neil Fullick; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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