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South Africans vote in toughest test for ANC
Wed Apr 22, 2009 11:20am EDT
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By Rebecca Harrison
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africans voted on Wednesday in an election that poses the toughest challenge to the African National Congress since the end of apartheid and could weaken its overwhelming dominance in parliament.
The ANC looks assured of a fourth straight win since defeating white minority rule in 1994 under Nelson Mandela and will make its leader Jacob Zuma president weeks after he was able to get corruption charges dropped on a technicality.
But the party faces an unprecedented challenge from opposition parties hoping to capitalize on frustration over corruption, poverty and crime, and could lose the two-thirds majority that gives it the right to change the constitution and entrench its power further.
"We are entering a post-liberation era. People are talking about new issues and challenges and there's also a new generation that's not attached to the liberation struggle," said independent political analyst David Monyae.
Queues snaked before dawn outside polling stations across South Africa, the continent's biggest economy and diplomatic heavyweight.
The electoral body hopes voter turnout will top 80 percent, compared with 77 percent in 2004. Voting papers were running short in some areas. With some 23 million eligible voters, a high turnout could strengthen the authority of Zuma, 67.
"I voted for the ANC out of loyalty because my father was active in the struggle but I'm not satisfied with what they've done. People expected jobs, and to be comfortable but they are still living in shacks," said Margaret Nkone, 57.
"I don't have a lot of confidence in Zuma but we hope he will do a better job," she complained in Soweto, a Johannesburg township that symbolized the fight against apartheid.
Many analysts believe the ANC, whose anti-apartheid credentials make it the choice for millions of black voters, will win between 60 and 66 percent of the vote, compared to nearly 70 percent in 2004.
"The ANC is slightly more likely to lose its two-thirds parliamentary majority than to retain it," said Control Risks consultancy, putting the chances at 55 versus 40 percent.
A smaller ANC majority would cheer investors keen to see its grip loosened. Despite Zuma's assurances, they fear he may bow to leftist allies who say policies credited with South Africa's longest spell of growth have harmed the poor.
RECESSION
But with South Africa possibly in its first recession in 17 years and mines and factories hard hit by the global downturn, Zuma's room for policy change is limited. Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, a market favorite, is expected to stay for now.
"Our economy won't become ideological, it will stay rational," Manuel told Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore newspaper.
In thin offshore trade, the rand was bid more than one percent stronger at 8.8750 to the dollar, partly on hopes Manuel will stay in his position and stick to tested policies. Continued...
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