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China's growth slows in second quarter
AFP - Friday, July 16
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China's growth slows in second quarter
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BEIJING (AFP) - – China said Thursday its economic growth had slowed in the second quarter, as massive stimulus spending was scaled back and moves to rein in soaring property prices started to bite.
Gross domestic product maintained its double-digit growth for the third quarter in a row, expanding 10.3 percent in the three months to June, according to the national statistics bureau.
The second quarter figure marked a slowdown from the blistering 11.9 percent growth in January-March and 10.7 percent in the last quarter of 2009, after Beijing introduced measures to cool the red-hot economy.
The data added to mounting evidence that the Chinese economy is losing steam, although Beijing has shown no intention of reversing tightening policies, and analysts downplayed the risk of a sharp let-up.
"Generally speaking, the economy is running well," NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun told reporters.
Sheng said the moderate braking in second-quarter growth would help prevent overheating.
"There are still a lot of difficulties and problems in the course of economic recovery," he added.
The economy grew 11.1 percent in the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year earlier, the data showed.
Analysts said growth was expected to slip to single digits in the second half, but dismissed the idea of any serious troubles in the short term.
"Despite the slowing growth, we think the chance for double-dip in China is quite small as Chinas pragmatic policy makers are quite flexible on policy stance," said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
"They still have a deep pocket to buffer any big slowdown."
The closely watched consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in June, compared with 3.1 percent the previous month, the statistics bureau said.
The slowdown puts inflation back within Beijing's three-percent inflation target for the year.
Inflation was up 2.6 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year earlier.
Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing said there was a "high probability" the government would increase its 7.5 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion dollars) bank lending target for this year as inflation continues to ease.
China's fixed asset investment in urban areas, a measure of government spending on infrastructure and a key driver of the economy, rose 25.5 percent in the first half from the same period last year, the government said.
Industrial output from the country's millions of factories and workshops increased 17.6 percent on year in the six-month period.
Retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose 18.2 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year ago.
Recent data also showed bank lending, real estate prices and imports all slowed in June from the previous month, while surveys of purchasing managers at factories across China showed manufacturing activity eased last month.
Beijing has shown no intention of altering its policy tightening stance despite signs the economy is cooling, and has begun to rein in the huge stimulus spending put in place in the wake of the global financial crisis.
"It's more of a wait-and-see attitude from Beijing's leaders," said Ken Peng, a Beijing-based economist for Citigroup.
In recent weeks, China also has slightly loosened its grip on the yuan exchange rate by allowing the currency to trade more freely against the dollar, while export tax rebates on some products have been removed.
China's central bank said late Thursday it would keep its managed float currency regime, saying it was "essential for economic restructuring" and in the country's long-term interest.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last month he believed the economy was moving in the "expected direction", which was interpreted as a sign that the government planned to stick to current policies.
Earlier President Hu Jintao, in a speech to the Group of 20 summit in Canada, called for caution in exit strategies from economic stimulus programmes to safeguard the global recovery.
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