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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Weekend Edition Australia China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam U.S. secret documents on N.K. and Kim Jong-il revealed ANN - Wednesday, December 1 Send IM Story Print Seoul (The Korea Herald/ANN) - Classified U.S. diplomatic cables, leaked by WikiLeaks on Monday (November 29), indicate that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's health has been deteriorating and his power to control the communist nation is increasingly weakened. According to the secret documents, South Korea's top official in charge of inter-Korean relations predicts Kim will die within five years due to his poor health. A top Chinese official revealed that Kim's decision-making power has weakened since having a stroke in 2008 and this led him to hurriedly decide on his youngest son as successor. Under a diplomatic cable dated July 24, 2009, South Korean Unification Minister Hyun In-take said, "Kim Jong-il is unlikely to live beyond 2015." He made the comments in a meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Kim Jong-il's health and succession concerns. "The current succession preparations for Kim Jong-un were 'rushed' and he anticipated additional 'fireworks' (either a third nuclear test or missile launches) at the end of the current 150-day campaign," Minister Hyun said. Another cable dated Jan. 11, 2010 reveals analysis on China-North Korea trade and Kim Jong-il's decision-making power. The analysis report said, "Kim Jong-il has recently reversed decisions and struggled to implement policies, showing increasing indecisiveness." "Officials also chart their own course as different factions competing for Kim's attention, making it difficult for Kim to set a firm, clear direction." The other diplomatic cable dated Oct. 26, 2009 describes a conversation between top officials from the United States and China over North Korean leader Kim's drinking habit. According to the conversation between U.S. Deputy Secretary James Steinberg and Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo, Kim Jong-il still drinks despite having had a stroke. "Kim Jong-il had a reputation among the Chinese for being 'quite a good drinker,'" Dai said. The Chinese official had asked Kim if he still drank alcohol. Kim said yes. N. K.'s collapse and succession process A cable dated Feb. 22, 2010 describes a conversation between South Korea's then Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-woo and U.S. ambassador to Korea Kathleen Stephens about China's position on North Korea. Over an official lunch, Chun, who is now President Lee Myung-bak's top foreign and security advisor, said, "China would not be able to stop North Korea's collapse following the death of Kim Jong-il." Chun said North Korea "had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of Kim Jong-il." Chun dismissed South Korean media reports that Chinese companies had agreed to pump $10 billion into the North's economy. Beijing had "no will" to use its modest economic leverage to force a change in Pyongyang's policies." South Korean opinion leaders and experts on North Korea made predictions of Kim Jong-un becoming the next leader and Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law Jang Song-taek challenging him, according to the cable dated Feb. 19, 2010. The cable said, "Of the five experts, one thought the younger Kim might succeed and one argued his lack of leadership experience made it unlikely he would win the support of the ruling elites. They agreed that Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law Jang Song-taek would prove a strong rival for the younger Kim and would probably be tempted to challenge him. Kim Jong-il had used draconian controls and international aid to discourage coups after having foiled three such attempts in the late '90s." Another cable dated April, 2009, with analysis on the North Korean currency reform, says "the most important reason for the recent DPRK (North Korea) currency reform is to uncover political opposition, particularly against Kim Jong-il's younger son." China's stance on a unified Korea Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping said in a U.S. diplomatic cable dated June 8, 2009, "China hopes for reunification of the two Koreas in the long term." He made the remarks in a meeting with U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan Richard E. Hoagland on key foreign issues. In the conversation, Cheng expressed concern over North Korean nuclear missile tests and political situation in the North and talked about China favoring Korean unification in the long term. "We need to solve this (nuclear missile tests) problem. It is very troublesome," Cheng said. "Korea's nuclear activity is a threat to the whole world's security," the Chinese official said. "China hopes for peaceful reunification in the long-term but expects the two countries to remain separate in the short-term." "Kim Jong-il's reported decision to anoint his youngest son as his successor was driven more by Kim's deteriorating health than any carefully planned strategy," he said. In contrast, former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew offered a different view on the outlook of a unified Korea. Lee said in a cable dated June 4, 2009 that China opposes South Korea's control of a unified Korea. He also said China prefers North Korea with nuclear weapons than having to see the collapse of the nation and added that the younger Kim might not be as tough as his father. Lee's conversation with Deputy Secretary of the U.S. State Department James Steinberg in Singapore on May 30, 2009, said, "If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad than a North Korea that has collapsed. They do not want the South to take over the North." "The next leader may not have the gumption or the bile of his father or grandfather. He may not be prepared to see people die like flies," the ex-Singaporean leader said. Before special envoy to North Korea Stephen Bosworth's visit to North Korea, two officials of the U.S. and China exchanged their views on prospects of the visit and the possible outcomes. Another diplomatic cable dated Dec.11, 2009, which describes a conversation between senior Chinese official Wang Jiarui and senior U.S. State Department official William Burns carries a discussion about the stalled six-party nuclear talks. Wang predicted that the "North will not publicly announce denuclearization soon, but does not want to lose the opportunity presented by Bosworth's visit." The document said, "The North needed a breakthrough in its relations with the United States, Wang asserted, both because of its domestic situation and the current international environment." Inter-Korean relations and Lee's N.K. policy South Korea reached out to North Korea late last year to propose an inter-Korea summit but turned down North Korea's demand for economic aid as a precondition, said a U.S. diplomatic cable showing discussions between Kim Sung-hwan, then National Security Adviser to President Lee Myung-bak, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Feb.2, 2009. "Kim said that, beginning last fall, the ROK (South Korea) has had contact with the DPRK about a summit," said the cable dated Feb.22, 2009. "The North, however, has demanded that Seoul provide a certain amount of economic aid prior to any summit." That precondition was unacceptable, Kim stressed, noting that the Blue House had emphasized to the ROK press this week that President Lee would never 'buy' a summit with the North. A U.S. diplomatic cable dated Jan. 12, 2009 shows President Lee's stance on North Korea policy and neighboring countries during his term, citing Blue House sources. "President Lee remained quite comfortable with his North Korea policy and he is prepared to leave the inter-Korean relations frozen until the end of his term in office, if necessary. With both sides (two Koreas) dug in, the outlook for any quick improvement in inter-Korean relations is slim to none." At the end of the analysis, the United States also evaluates South Korea's overall performance in foreign affairs: "During a year in which President Lee faced considerable difficulty advancing his domestic agenda, his foreign policy efforts, if not wildly successful, at least did not get him into trouble." 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