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Iceland caught in storm after Icesave veto
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Iceland caught in storm after Icesave veto
AFP - Thursday, January 7
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Iceland was swept up in a political and economic storm, with clouds building over its credit rating, economic recovery and EU membership bid after the president vetoed compensation over the Icesave bank collapse.
REYKJAVIK (AFP) - – Iceland was caught in a political and economic storm Wednesday, with doubts growing over its recovery and EU membership bid after the president vetoed a compensation deal to cover the Icesave bank collapse.
Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson on Tuesday refused to sign the so-called Icesave bill on compensation to the British and Dutch governments, instead referring the issue to a referendum because of public opposition.
The decision immediately sparked anger in Britain and the Netherlands where officials urged Reykjavik to meet its international obligations after they had had to compensate local savers who lost their money in Icesave.
On Wednesday, Standard and Poor's put Icelandic debt on CreditWatch negative, saying the veto could undermine the country's rescue package from the International Monetary Fund -- although the IMF has said there was no link.
S&P said that "as a result, we could lower our ratings on Iceland by one to two notches within a month."
Moody's Investors Service meanwhile said the president's move had "uncertain credit implications but will certainly complicate any near-term plans (for Iceland) to exit from its financial and economic crisis."
On Tuesday, Fitch credit rating agency downgraded Iceland's long-term debt rating to junk status, from BBB- to BB+, citing a "renewed wave of domestic political, economic and financial uncertainty."
The Icesave bill, narrowly approved by the Icelandic parliament on December 31, calls for 3.8 billion euros (5.4 billion dollars) to be paid to the British and Dutch governments who had to compensate more than 320,000 British and Dutch savers who lost money in the collapse of the Icelandic bank.
The payout has stirred up resentment among many ordinary Icelanders.
About 60,000 people -- or about a quarter of the electorate -- have signed a petition protesting against the bill which they fear will doom them to decades of poverty, all because of the mistakes of a handful of bankers and financial regulators that sparked their country's financial collapse in October 2008.
The Icelandic parliament is expected to reconvene on Friday to discuss whether to hold the referendum on February 20, a political advisor for Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir told AFP.
Sigurdardottir has staked her political future on passage of the bill, suggesting her government could step down if it were blocked.
A poll among 877 Icelanders and published on Wednesday by the MMR polling institute indicated that 58 percent would vote 'No' to the Icesave bill in a referendum and 42 percent would support it.
Meanwhile, Britain and the European Commission warned Iceland a 'No' vote could jeopardise its bid to join the European Union.
Britain's financial services minister Paul Myners told the BBC: "This development (would) need to be factored into a decision as to whether we would be supportive of Iceland's application to join the EU."
And a spokesman for the Commission, which is preparing an opinion for the EU's 27 member states on how long Iceland might need to join the bloc, said "economic questions like the case of Icesave ... will be analysed very closely."
Baldur Thorhallsson, a political science professor at the University of Iceland and an EU specialist, told AFP he expected the Icesave debate to play a role in Iceland's membership bid.
"A decision is expected in March from the EU on whether to start the negotiations and I think the UK and Netherlands will hesitate before agreeing to the negotiations," he said.
Icelandic support for an EU application soared above 60 percent at the height of the country's financial collapse, with the bloc seen by many as a safe haven.
But by September, a Gallup poll showed that 50.3 percent of Icelanders opposed EU membership and only 32.7 percent supported it.
The EU implications however took a backseat in Iceland on Wednesday, with more attention paid to the impact the Icesave bill would have on the country's economic recovery as concerns grew that foreign investment could be hit as a result.
"The key to the recovery is that Iceland has access to (international) financial markets," Vilhjalmur Egilsson, director of the Federation of Icelandic Employers, told the daily Frettabladid.
Newspaper Morgunbladid wrote in an editorial that "despite everything we can now be in a better position. If we play the situation well, the nation could benefit from a strong resistance against excessive and unfair demands."
Frettabladid noted in its editorial however that "Icesave will ... not disappear if the law is not adopted," adding: "A referendum will not close the issue in any way."
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