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US private sector job losses bode ill for recovery
AFP - Thursday, August 6
WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The US private sector shed more jobs than expected in July amid a painful and long recession, a private survey showed Wednesday, signaling that crucial consumer spending will remain weak.
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Payrolls firm ADP said the world's largest economy shed 371,000 jobs in the private sector last month, more than the 350,000 expected by most analysts, in a report foreshadowing Friday's official unemployment data.
The ADP National Employment Report showed the decline nevertheless was less steep than in June, when a revised 463,000 jobs were cut.
The July decline in non-farm payrolls was the smallest since October 2008 and extends "the notable improvement" between the first and second quarters of 2009, the firm said.
However, ADP warned, "despite recent indications that overall economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is likely to decline for at least several more months, albeit at a diminishing rate."
The monthly ADP report provides a snapshot on the labor market ahead of the official data which covers the public and private sectors.
The Labor Department is to publish jobs data for July Friday. Most analysts expect the unemployment rate climbed to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in June, a 26-year high, amid a brutal recession that began in December 2007.
They also anticipate the economy shed 328,000 non-farm jobs.
The ADP report of a bigger-than-expected fall in private sector jobs was "adding some uneasiness among (equity) traders ahead of Friday's labor report," said Charles Schwab & Co. analysts in a client note.
Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics said that the ADP slowdown in nonfarm job losses reflected a sharp drop in initial jobless insurance claims due to an unusually smaller number of temporary auto sector retooling layoffs.
"There's no question the peak rate of decline has passed, though these are still horrific numbers by all but the most recent standards," Shepherdson said.
A separate private report Wednesday showed the huge services sector contracted unexpectedly in July after moving closer to growth in the prior three months.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its index of the non-manufacturing sector fell to 46.4 percent in July from 47.0 percent in June, the 10th consecutive monthly decline.
Most analysts had expected the index on the sector -- which employs more than 85 percent of non-manufacturing workers -- would rise again, to 48.0 percent, after climbing toward the 50 percent break-even point between growth and contraction for the past three months.
The ISM employment index dropped for the 18th time in the past 19 months, to 41.5 percent from 43.4 percent.
Both reports gave fresh reasons to worry about Friday's jobs data and the dim outlook for a revival of consumer spending, which drives roughly two-thirds of US economic activity.
"The pullback in the (ISM) services industry employment gauge is not a good omen for payroll employment in July," said Brian Bethune of IHS Global Insight.
"The drop in the employment index appears to corroborate the ADP report released earlier in the day that points in the direction of steeper-than-expected payroll employment reductions in July," Bethune said.
"The recovery still faces stiff headwinds as employment trends still remain decidedly negative," he added.
The ADP report "still indicates weak consumer spending," said Andrew Busch of BMO Capital Markets.
High Frequency Economics's Shepherdson agreed. The data "suggest the unemployment rate continues to rocket and household cashflows continue to fall. Not a great outlook for spending."
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A job seeker at a Career Center in July 2009 in Richmond, California. The US private sector shed 371,000 jobs in July, sharply lower than the preceding month but more than expected amid the severe and long recession, a survey by payrolls firm ADP showed
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