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China's May retail sales, industrial output up
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China's May retail sales, industrial output up
By JOE McDONALD,AP Business Writer AP - Saturday, June 13
BEIJING - China's retail sales, bank lending and industrial output grew in May as the government spent heavily on a stimulus to boost the world's third-largest economy as exports plunged, data showed Friday.
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The latest report, on top of figures Thursday showing May investment rising, suggested the stimulus spending was helping to make up for a collapse in demand for exports that wiped out millions of Chinese factory jobs.
Retail sales rose 15.2 percent in May from a year earlier, up from April's 14.8 percent growth, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. Industrial output rose 8.9 percent, rebounding from April's lackluster 7.3 percent and exceeding March's 8.3 percent rate.
Beijing is trying to shield China from the global slump by boosting domestic consumption with a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) plan to inject money into the economy through spending on building highways and other public works.
"May's industrial production result confirms the effectiveness so far of the Chinese authorities' stimulus efforts," said economist Matt Robinson of Moody's Economy.com in a report. Still, he cautioned, weak demand for Chinese exports means "industrial production growth will be far below the stellar rates recorded in the past few years."
Chinese leaders and economists have cautioned that the recovery is still tentative and vulnerable to changes in the global economy.
Friday's data highlighted the economy's heavy reliance on the government spending to maintain growth and the gap between stimulus-financed industries and struggling fields with exposure to plunging exports.
Output of stone and other minerals used in stimulus-financed construction projects rose 14.7 percent in May, while auto production jumped 29 percent, boosted by sales tax cuts and other government incentives for buyers. Among industries exposed to exports, output of computers and telecommunications equipment grew by just 4.3 percent.
The economy grew by 6.1 percent in the first quarter of the year, the fastest rate of any major country but below the government target of 8 percent for the year. The World Bank is forecasting 6.5 percent annual growth.
Analysts also point to healthy retail sales as another source of growth, though consumer spending is still a relatively small portion of China's economy.
May bank lending surged 30.6 percent from the same time last year to 665 billion yuan ($97 billion), up from April's 29.7 percent growth and 590 billion yuan ($86 billion) in loans, the central bank reported.
"Borrowing demand from private firms and individuals is likely to get stronger amid the better economic outlook," Goldman Sachs said in a report.
Consumers and investors are still wary, despite the improving economic indicators.
The central bank said Friday a new quarterly survey found only 15.1 percent of consumers surveyed are willing to spend more money, down 14.6 percentage points from the first three months of the year.
The proportion of people surveyed who plan to increase the amount of money they save rose to a record 47 percent, the central bank said. It gave no details of how many people were surveyed, where or when.
China's stock market benchmark, the Shanghai Composite Index, fell 1.9 percent Friday amid what analysts said was investor uncertainty about conditions in coming months.
Dismal May trade data reported this week highlighted the importance of stimulus spending to meeting the government's goals.
Exports plunged by a record 26.4 percent from the same month of 2008, while imports contracted by 25.2 percent, the customs agency said Thursday. That exceeded most economists' forecasts.
Other data Thursday showed investment in factories, real estate and other fixed assets soared 32.9 percent in the first five months of the year. Merrill Lynch said that translated into monthly growth in May of up to 38 percent.
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Associated Press researcher Bonnie Cao in Beijing contributed to this report.
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National Bureau of Statistics (in Chinese): http://www.stats.gov.cn
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