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OPEC set to hold output steady
AFP - Thursday, May 28
VIENNA, (AFP) - - OPEC was set to keep its output unchanged at a meeting in Vienna, with hopes of recovering demand for crude and higher prices convincing members to maintain the status quo.
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The 12-member oil exporter group believes the market is oversupplied, as shown by the high stock levels, but it seems satisfied with prices after a rally in the last two weeks that has taken crude above 60 dollars a barrel.
Saudi Arabia, the most influential power in the cartel, pointed to signs of a pick-up in demand Wednesday and led calls for keeping the group's output target steady at 24.84 million barrels a day.
"The market is currently out of balance, but it's starting to get back in balance," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi told reporters, suggesting that global economic recovery would help absorb current overproduction.
Algeria's minister said there was consensus for no change in policy and even hardline Iran, whose oil minister usually pushes for output cuts, conceded that the group's production target would remain the same.
"Prices are stabilising or even increasing, so why change (output)?" Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil asked rhetorically as he arrived here.
"The supply is higher than demand, but refineries are functioning better, there is increased demand in gasoline and the economy is doing better, so there are some good signs that will support prices," he added.
Crude prices spiked to a six-month high above 63 dollars on Wednesday, but they remain below the 75 dollars that OPEC members say they want in the longer term. Economists warn however that high prices will further drag on economic growth.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 40 percent of world oil, cut its production target three times late last year to stabilise prices which tumbled from record highs above 147 dollars per barrel in July 2008 to 32.40 dollars in December.
The group seeks to influence prices by setting itself an output quota, with members given individual production targets which are reviewed at regular meetings.
"Although fundamental conditions remain weak, higher prevailing prices as well as continuing concerns about quota discipline outside of the Gulf Arab states makes a roll-over (no change) the most likely outcome," wrote analysts at the PFC Energy consultancy.
OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri pointed to an improving economic environment as the reason for the recent run up in the crude market.
"We are seeing some small light at the end of the tunnel," he said.
"We may see at the end of the year a price of 70 dollars a barrel," he added. "I hope we see a recovery. It is coming, but it is going to be very slow."
Nigerian Oil Minister Rilwanu Lukman said Wednesday that prices "could be better."
Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez, a fellow price hawk like Iran, did not call for a reduction in OPEC's output target, but said members should respect their quotas and cut back their overproduction.
"There is an excess on the market of about a million barrels per day," he said as he arrived on Wednesday.
"The most important thing is unity and cohesion in OPEC with the common objective of all ministers... to have (price) levels of more than 70 dollars," he added.
As noted by the energy watchdog the International Energy Agency, OPEC members are increasingly surpassing their quota levels, meaning that the group could reduce real output by clamping down on this overproduction.
PFC said the non-compliance of mainly non-Gulf members had "hamstrung any real discussion of a potential cut" at the meeting on Thursday
Khelil said OPEC production was 800,000 barrels a day above the target of 24.84 million barrels a day.
"If we complied, I don't think the price would be only at 60 dollars. It would be higher," he said.
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A man rides his scooter past oil rigs in Cangzhou, in northern China's Hebei Province. OPEC was set to keep its output unchanged at a meeting in Vienna, with hopes of recovering demand for crude and higher prices convincing members to maintain the status quo.
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