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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Weekend Edition Australia China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam ANALYSIS: Thailand's opposition party faces another test ANN - Tuesday, December 14 Send IM Story Print Bangkok - To most political analysts, not much can be read into the results of Sunday's by-elections in Thailand. The turn-outs were low nearly everywhere, a phenomenon blamed on the long holidays, and none of the results could be called an upset. What happens next will have nothing to do with how observers think, but how MPs of the opposition Pheu Thai Party take the seemingly low-key and uninspiring outcomes. If Pheu Thai MPs do not panic and flee the opposition camp en masse, then the next general election will be what it is supposed to be - a dead-heat between Pheu Thai and the ruling Democrats. The latest Abac poll, conducted between November 30 and December 11 in 17 provinces, confirmed as much, with 46.7 per cent of eligible voters likely to vote for the Democrats if a general election were to be held today, as opposed to 44 per cent who would vote for Pheu Thai. So, can the Pheu Thai MPs stay calm? Outsiders see Sunday's by-elections as a poor barometer to gauge the national picture, but opposition MPs know a bad sign when they see one. What would worry them is the lack of a voter response to the Constitution Court's rulings that controversially let the Democrat Party off the hook. The opposition would have expected the blatant "injustice" to be reflected in tangible sympathetic support, long holidays or not. And even if the Pheu Thai MPs don't have to worry about the Democrats, they simply can't ignore the rise of the Bhum Jai Thai Party, a partner in ruling coalition. It is no surprise that as Pheu Thai leaders led by Chalerm Yoobamrung played down the national impact of yesterday's results, but some party sources warned that without a confidence booster, there could be an exodus. "We didn't field average candidates," said one of the sources. "All our candidates were hopeful ones. Their losses can only mean, we can't match them [rivals] financially, besides their superior state power." Another source expressed concern that the name of Thaksin Shinawatra was probably not as "magical" as before. "He may remain a beloved figure, but how long can you keep voting with a beloved shadow in mind?" the source said. "Candidates could win votes by just mentioning his name, but that can't last forever." When these factors are put together - their rivals' financial clout and control of state power, the fading away of Thaksin as a rallying cry, the apparent indifference toward the Constitution Court's infamous Democrat verdicts - Pheu Thai MPs can be disheartened, if not anxious. The sources claimed that without a big political turnaround that can revive the opposition MPs' confidence in their party, dozens of them may defect before the next election. Even the much-taunted "populist" programmes of the Democrat government have started to worry Pheu Thai, the sources said. Interestingly, the Pheu Thai winner in Khon Kaen Constituency 2 received essentially the same number of votes as in 2007, but the Democrat Party, which gained just about 7,000 votes in that year, garnered more than 36,000 yesterday. In Ayutthaya, one of the known "red" provinces, a Pheu Thai candidate lost to Chart Thai Pattana's Kuerkul Danchaivichit, albeit with the latter only reclaiming his seat after a recent disqualification by the court. Bhum Jai Thai's victories in Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin may be more worrying to Pheu Thai than the opposition party's loss in Bangkok Constituency 2 to Democrat heavyweight Apirak Kosayodhin. "Our wins in Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin means the charges of 'betrayal' no longer work," said Bhum Jai Thai spokesman Supachai Jaisamut. He was referring to what used to be Pheu Thai's trump card against Bhum Jai Thai, the stab in Thaksin's back by Bhum Jai Thai de-facto leader Newin Chidchob. Lastly, can the low voter turn-outs be a consolation for Pheu Thai? Long holidays affect both camps alike, so they should not be counted as an anti-Pheu Thai factor. What the party can really take heart from is the fact the by-election results show every party won where it was expected to, so the game is still on. Again, as far as Pheu Thai is concerned, it's all about convincing its MPs to keep faith and not panic. 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