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Thursday, 2 June 2011 - Portugal votes under bailout cloud, centre-right ahead |
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    Read more with google mobile : Portugal votes under bailout cloud, centre-right ahead |

    Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Full Focus Editor's choice A selection of our top photos from the past 24 hours.   Full Article  Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Europe E.coli is toxic new strain, trade row grows 11:27am EDT Romney charges that Obama has "failed America" 10:17am EDT Google reveals Gmail hacking, says likely from China | 8:08am EDT Jobless claims fall as labor costs tepid 10:43am EDT Blake Lively "nude" pictures fake, publicist says | 01 Jun 2011 Discussed 64 150 economists back U.S. Republicans in debt fight 53 Speculation grows over Sarah Palin’s 2012 plans 52 Air France jet crashed nose-up after 4 minute ordeal Watched Tornado hits Springfield, Massachusetts 2:43am EDT Massive Australian waterspout caught on film Mon, May 30 2011 Scientists revive ancient spider in stunning 3D detail Tue, May 24 2011 Portugal votes under bailout cloud, centre-right ahead Tweet Share this Email Print Related News PM Socrates, a stubborn fighter in Portugal poll 9:49am EDT Portugal PM candidate Passos: manager and novice 9:51am EDT Scenarios: How could Portugal election affect bailout? 10:52am EDT Analysis & Opinion Japan wasting opportunities afforded by crisis Who would save Japan in a sovereign debt crisis? Related Topics World » Portuguese Social Democrat Party leader Pedro Passos Coelho shakes hands with supporters during an electoral campaign in Coimbra May 31, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Rafael Marchante By Axel Bugge and Shrikesh Laxmidas LISBON | Thu Jun 2, 2011 10:52am EDT LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal holds a snap general election on Sunday, which could end months of political and economic turmoil as the next government gets down to enacting tough austerity under a 78-billion-euro bailout. Polls indicate the opposition center-right Social Democrats (PSD) will get most votes. But they may need to build a coalition to form a government and fill the vacuum that has existed since the collapse of the minority Socialist government in March. Portugal has been on a roller-coaster since the collapse as it battled a deep recession and euro-era high borrowing rates, and a caretaker administration lacking full powers led the tense bailout negotiations. Polls indicate Portugal may get a majority government led by the PSD's Pedro Passos Coelho which will have sufficient clout to raise taxes and carry out the required reforms to tame the country's large debts. Analysts say the most likely outcome is that the Social Democrats get the most votes -- they have about 37 percent support in the latest polls -- and form a government with the rightist CDS party, their historic ally. "We will probably get a majority government with the Social Democrats and CDS, which is likely to bring political stability," said Adelino Maltez, political analyst at the Social Science Institute at the University of Lisbon. Although Portugal's main parties all signed off on the terms of the bailout in April before the election, the key for investors will be how much power the incoming government will have to push austerity and reforms forward in parliament. "The road with this package is long and filled with reforms which may be politically difficult to pass," said Diego Iscaro, economist at IHS Global Insight. The terms of the three-year bailout include raising taxes across the board, steep spending cuts and reforms to boost competitiveness, all of which is expected to lead to a 2 percent economic contraction both this year and next. It includes strict targets to cut the budget deficit and lower the country's debt load, currently at around 90 percent of output. Prime Minister Jose Socrates won a second term in 2009 but without a majority had to depend on the Social Democrats to pass legislation, something many analysts say undermined his ability to fend off the sovereign debt crisis and ultimately pushed Lisbon to follow Greece and Ireland to seek a bailout. "It was precisely the absence of a strong government with a majority that triggered Portugal's request for the bailout, when Socrates' administration collapsed as it could not pass the austerity," said Iscaro. VOTERS DISILLUSIONED Most Portuguese are disillusioned with politicians and fear the economic sacrifices to come, whoever wins the election. "These elections are all about personal quarrels. It seems that our elites are weak and I am pessimistic about my future and that of my country," said Joaquim Maia, 41, a construction worker. The main candidates have tried to avoid discussing the consequences of the bailout during the campaign, taking the opportunity instead to trade accusations about the mistakes that led to it. Unemployment at 12.4 percent is the highest on record. So far workers' protests and strikes have been tame but analysts say they could escalate as austerity deepens and the recession bites into household incomes. Voters' low expectations for the future still pose the risk that the election result will be inconclusive. Polls show about a third of voters have not yet made up their minds, which means Socrates' Socialists could catch up and push President Anibal Cavaco Silva to promote a broad coalition of the three main parties to avoid continued political instability. Cavaco Silva is constitutionally mandated to decide who will form the next government but he has no role in government. "A solution with a broad-based government would become more necessary if the Socialists were to win more votes than the Social Democrats," said Maltez. (Additional reporting by Daniel Alvarenga, Editing by Sonya Hepinstall) World Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language, all capital letters or appear to be spam, and we review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. Social Stream (What's this?) © Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback   Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Analyst Research Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Super Lawyers Attorney Rating Service Reuters on Facebook Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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