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Edition: U.S. Article Comments (1) Save Email Print Reprints Most Popular Most Shared U.S. worried more secret documents may be released 30 Jul 2010 Ellen exit heralds major "American Idol" makeover 30 Jul 2010 Arizona immigration law appeal set for November 1:18am EDT BP to try well kill Tuesday | Video 12:36am EDT U.S. bank failures total 108 after 5 shut on Friday 30 Jul 2010 Hugh Hefner: Rebel with a cause | Video 30 Jul 2010 Second senior Democrat to face ethics trial: source 1:58am EDT House approves oil spill reform bill 30 Jul 2010 Obama hopes Rep. 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Commentary Australian PM Gillard heading for defeat: new poll Digg This Tweet This Share on LinkedIn Share on Facebook Related News Australia's election hits gender divide Tue, Jul 27 2010 Poll advantage narrows for Australia's Julia Gillard Mon, Jul 26 2010 Australia mining lobby to resume anti-tax campaign Sun, Jul 25 2010 UPDATE 1-Australia's ruling Labor party narrows poll lead Sun, Jul 25 2010 Australian govt consolidates lead over opposition: poll Sat, Jul 24 2010 Related Topics World » Australia » Julia Gillard » Tony Abbott » By Mark Bendeich SYDNEY | Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:40am EDT SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard is heading for a shock defeat at elections on August 21, a new opinion poll showed Saturday, as government infighting and damaging cabinet leaks threatened to derail her campaign. Defeat for Gillard, though still considered unlikely by most other opinion polls and political experts, would sink her plans to slap a 30 percent tax on iron ore and coal mines, to introduce carbon-trading and to build a $33 billion-plus broadband network. Gillard took the leadership barely five weeks ago from unpopular predecessor Kevin Rudd, who was dumped by his own Labor MPs, but their gamble on the country's first woman prime minister leading them back to government is looking riskier by the day. The latest Nielsen poll, published in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age newspapers, showed that support for Gillard's Labor party had dived six percentage points to 48 percent, behind the conservative opposition with an election-winning 52 percent. Opinion polls have been erratic but, on balance, they have favored Gillard. The Reuters Poll Trend, a statistical analysis that aims to smooth out the volatility of differing poll results, shows Gillard winning a slightly increased majority. The new Nielsen poll shows two-thirds of voters still expect Gillard to win, despite many shifting to opposition leader Tony Abbott, but it will still come as a shock for Labor which is struggling to heal the wounds of Rudd's dumping. On the campaign trail on Saturday, Abbott dismissed the latest poll results and said he remained "very much the underdog" in the election. The new poll, conducted over two days this week, followed leaks of cabinet discussions to newspapers which said they showed Gillard, the then deputy prime minister, had opposed decisions to boost the state pension and paid paternity leave. "It encompassed the darkest two days of the campaign for the government which were dominated by damaging cabinet leaks against Ms Gillard, for which Mr. Rudd was blamed," The Sydney Morning Herald said under a front-page headline "Abbott seizes the lead DAMAGING LEAKS CONTINUE If the August 21 election were to mirror the latest poll results, the opposition would win an additional 28 seats in the lower House of parliament, 11 more than it needs to form a government, The Sydney Morning Herald said. Rudd, who is recontesting his parliamentary seat on August 21, has denied he or his camp is behind the recent cabinet leaks and has reaffirmed his support for Gillard's campaign, but the damaging leaks against her continued Saturday. The Australian newspaper, quoting unnamed sources, said Gillard as deputy prime minister had skipped national-security meetings and instead sent a junior staffer, her former bodyguard, to stand in for her at the cabinet-level discussions. The story, which Gillard has declined to comment on, citing cabinet confidentiality, follows similar reports this month that Rudd had also skipped the same meetings -- a pattern of leaks that highlights bad blood between the Gillard and Rudd camps. Rudd is currently in hospital to have his gall bladder removed and has promised to return to the campaign for Gillard and the Labor party when he is well enough. His wife said on Saturday he was recovering well from the operation. Labor cabinet minister Craig Emerson told ABC radio on Saturday the government still had three weeks to appeal to voters before polling day but conceded the election would be close. "This election is on a knife-edge," he said. World Australia Julia Gillard Tony Abbott Comments See All Comments (1) | Post Comment Jul 31, 2010 1:21am EDT Poll and News media are brother’s in crime in Australia. The People, the serfs live in fear and will not vote until they know for sure who will be the winner. Than they vote to be sure they are on the right side. Moral Sense: “Do what you have been told” – Australian News Media. It’s Sad !!!!! NEWSTIME2010 Report As Abusive See All Comments (1) Add a Comment *We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language or appear to be spam and review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. © Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback Analyst Research Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Labs Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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