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WRAPUP 1-S.Korea state think-tank calls for policy shift
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WRAPUP 1-S.Korea state think-tank calls for policy shift
Reuters - 2 hours 57 minutes ago
* Finance ministry think-tank upgrades economic view
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* Advises gradual unwinding of emergency measures
* Central bank due to review interest rates on Thursday
* Chances already on the rise for 2009 rate increase
By Cheon Jong-woo and Yoo Choonsik
SEOUL, Sept 8 - The South Korean finance ministry's research arm called for a gradual unwinding of emergency economic and financial policy measures, making it the first influential government organisation to make such a call.
The remarks from the Korea Development Institute underline growing expectations that South Korea and some other Asian countries will be the first to move to tighten conditions following the extraordinary stimulus put in place to counter the global financial crisis.
The Bank of Korea meets on Thursday and although it is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 2.0 percent, signs the economy is pulling out of the downturn faster-than-expected have raised market bets for an interest rate rise late this year.
"In line with the recovering economy, it is desirable for the authorities to gradually normalise the macroeconomic policy stance, which has so far been structured with the aim of crisis management," the KDI said in a statement.
The G20 finance ministers this weekend said trillions of dollars in support would be needed for some time. But analysts say South Korea, Australia, China and India are the closest to tightening policy as their economies show signs, including rises in asset prices, of picking up.
In a report on Tuesday, the KDI forecast the export-dependent economy would shrink 0.7 percent this year, a significant upgrade from a 2.3 percent contraction it projected in May. It cited an improving economic environment at home and abroad for the change. [ID:nSEV000810]
The central bank cut its 7-day repurchase agreement rate <KROCRT=ECI> by a total of 3.25 percentage points over four months from October to counter the downturn.
It also poured money into the financial system, participated in quasi-official funds to recapitalise domestic banks and stabilise the bond market and sealed about $90 billion in emergency credit lines with three countries.
The finance ministry introduced various stimulus plans amounting to some 7 percent of gross domestic product to cushion the country from the worst global financial and economic crisis in decades.
"Regarding the monetary and financial policy, efforts are needed to prevent the economic recovery from lifting inflation and the rising short-term liquidity from leaving counter effects such as sharp rises in asset prices," the KDI said.
But the Ministry of Strategy and Finance reaffirmed it would maintain expansionary fiscal policy for now. [ID:nSEW000135]
The short end of the Korean swaps curve has seen a noteable flattening as investors have priced in the risk of a central bank rate rise before the end of the year.
The Korea Financial Investment Association said on Tuesday that all 160 bond traders it surveyed expected the Bank of Korea to keep its policy rate steady on Thursday for a seventh consecutive month. But it added that they were the most worried in a year about inflation.
In recent weeks, at least three international financial and research organisations have withdrawn forecasts for a contraction in the economy in 2009, reflecting the rapid pick up in economic activity in recent months.
South Korea's economy last suffered an annual contraction in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis, when the country slumped to the verge of sovereign default. (Additional reporting by Seo Eun-kyung; Editing by Neil Fullick)
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