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Japan PM sees 'no bottom in sight' for sinking economy
AFP - Friday, March 6
TOKYO (AFP) - - Japan said Thursday there was no bottom in sight for Asia's biggest economy as a record slump in business investment raised fears that its recession is the deepest since World War II.
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Japanese companies slashed their investments slashed their investment in plants and equipment by 17.3 percent in the last quarter of 2008 from a year earlier, the biggest fall since comparable records began in 2002, the finance ministry said.
"It's clear that the economy is in a severe state," Prime Minister Taro Aso said in parliament. "We have no bottom in sight."
There are fears that the government will report next week that the Japanese economy shrank even more in the fourth quarter of 2008 than an initial estimate of a 12.7 percent annualised drop.
The contraction could be as large as 14.8 percent, which would be the worst since World War II, surpassing a 13.1 percent decline in early 1974 after the first oil shock, UBS economist Akira Maekawa said.
Japan was once seen as relatively unscathed by the global financial crisis, but its manufacturers have been badly hurt by a worldwide downturn in consumer spending on goods such as cars and consumer electronics.
Japan's exports almost halved in January from a year earlier as factory output plummeted 10 percent month-on-month.
"If you look at economic indicators, they are all in a downward trend," said Finance and Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano, who has warned the economy is facing its deepest crisis since the war.
Before the current downturn, Japan's corporate sector had been a key driver of a recovery in Asia's largest economy following the 1990s recessions.
Japanese companies racked up bumper profits and invested heavily to expand their production facilities.
Those same firms are now shutting plants and laying off tens of thousands of workers, depressing consumer spending.
Morgan Stanley economist Takehiro Sato thinks Japan's economy shrank by an annualised 13.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
The recession is likely to be the longest in post-war times, exceeding the slump after the "economic bubble" burst in the early 1990s, when sales and profits dropped for seven straight quarters, he said.
Companies' sales fell 11.6 percent in the three months to December, while pretax profits tumbled 64 percent, down for a sixth quarter in a row, the finance ministry survey showed.
Manufacturers were hardest hit, with earnings diving 94 percent.
"Overall manufacturing seems likely to record a loss in the first quarter of 2009," Macquarie Securities analyst Richard Jerram predicted.
Japanese corporate icons such as Sony and Toyota Motor are heading for big losses in the current financial year to March because of weak demand and the strength of the yen, which is bad for their export earnings.
Aso said it was "extremely difficult" to predict how the labour market would fare from now but said stimulus measures could boost the economy towards the end of this year.
Parliament on Wednesday enacted legislation needed to go ahead with a controversial plan to hand two trillion yen (20 billion dollars) back to the public in cash handouts to fight the recession.
Small villages in northern Japan were the first to start the payouts Thursday. Opinion polls show that most of the public believes the cash gifts -- averaging 12,000 yen (120 dollars) a person -- are a waste of money.
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