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China runs ahead with spending torch
AFP - Friday, March 6
BEIJING (AFP) - - China took over the lead in the race to beat the global economic crisis on Thursday, promising eight-percent growth and heavy social spending as US, European and Japanese data flagged.
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Japanese stocks closed with a gain of three percent after a 2.23-percent surge on Wall Street in anticipation of a boost to the global economy from China.
But in Europe, stocks retreated as the Chinese strategy unfolded.
China faces "unprecedented difficulties and challenges," over the crisis, Premier Wen Jiabao told the annual sesssion of parliament.
He gave some details of stimulus spending to total four trillion yuan (585 billion dollars), promising to boost social programmes massively, but did not roll out a detailed blockbuster spending splurge as some observers had expected.
The country would overcome the crisis, he assured, forecasting that it could still achieve growth of eight percent this year and that this was essential for "ensuring social stability."
Meanwhile, low inflation and recessionary pressures in Europe were expected to push the European Central Bank into a half-point rate cut to a record low point of 1.50 percent on Thursday.
In Japan, Prime Minister Taro Aso said that "the economy is rapidly worsening, that there was "no bottom in sight" and "it's clear that the economy is in a severe state."
The finance ministry reported a 17.3-percent drop in business investment in the last quarter of last year over 12 months, saying this was a record retrenchment.
And the US Federal Reserve central bank said in its "Beige Book" assessment late on Wednesday that US activity "deteriorated further" in February and that a significant pickup was not expected before late this year or early in 2010.
In Europe, data for German retail sales showed an unexpected fall of 0.6 percent in January. This was because gloom and fear of unemployment were "weighing considerably" on private spending, UniCredit economist Alexander Koch said.
The European carmakers' trade group ACEA forecast overnight that European auto output will fall by 25 percent this year.
The head of French group Renault, Carlos Ghosn who gave the figure, said that last week the estimate was 15 percent. "Things are changing all the time," he said.
"When we have a look at the February sales, there's only one market which is up, it's Germany. And Germany is up only in one segment, the low segment of the market which exploded, due mainly to the scrapping incentives," he said referring to a scrap-for-new subsidy.
Ghosn called for joint European intervention, saying the sector needed 40 billion euros (50 billion dollars).
Investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated that the total size of all eurozone stimulus packages had risen to about 200 billion euros from 130 billion euros in its last estimate in October, on the assumption that all of the money was used.
Much global attention was focused on announcements in China, widely considered to have vast capacity to stimulate activity and import goods and services, thanks to economic strength and huge foreign reserves built up through a long run of export-driven activity.
This in turn is attributed largely to low labour costs and, in the view notably of the United States, to a low exchange rate for the yuan.
Among the social spending announced by Wen was a 17.6-percent increase in social security spending to 293 billion yuan (43 billion dollars), a 38.2-percent rise in spending on health care to 118.1 billion yuan, and 42 billion yuan for job creation.
And China would keep the exchange rate of the yuan basically stable this year, he said.
A China expert at City University of Hong Kong, Joseph Cheng, commented: "This spending will improve the quality of life for the people, and it will also enhance the legitimacy of the regime."
In Singapore, the New York oil contract rose by 12 cents to 45.50 dollars a barrel with analysts saying this was because of signs that demand in China and the United States could strengthen.
On the corporate front, the newly merged French energy giant GDF Suez reported a 13-percent rise in net profit last year to 6.5 billion euros (8.2 billion dollars) on strong oil and gas prices, and forecast a further rise in operating profit this year despite the crisis.
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People watch a stock prices index in Beijing. China took over the lead in the race to beat the global economic crisis, promising eight-percent growth and heavy social spending as US, European and Japanese data flagged.
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