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US trade gap shrinks as exports surge
AFP - Saturday, December 11
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US trade gap shrinks as exports surge
WASHINGTON (AFP) - – The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in October as exports surged on the back of a weaker dollar, official data showed Friday in a report suggesting stronger growth in the recovering economy.
The Commerce Department reported the trade deficit stood at a seasonally adjusted 38.7 billion dollars, the smallest gap all year and down 13 percent from a revised 44.6 billion dollars in September.
"The sharp decline in the October trade deficit bodes well for the US economy," said Gregory Daco at IHS Global Insight.
The economist said the improvement should provide a boost to gross domestic product growth of roughly three percentage points in the fourth quarter, after deducting a huge 1.8 points in the third quarter.
"We expect real GDP growth to be slightly north of 3.0 percent for the last quarter of the year," Daco said.
The world's largest economy grew 2.5 percent in the third quarter, not enough to lower a stubbornly high unemployment rate that has hovered near 10 percent despite the official end of the Great Recession in June 2009.
"With inventory-building continuing we have to expect imports to keep rising, too, but overall it looks as though net trade will make a significant positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP growth," said Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics.
"Expect upward revisions to forecasts," he added.
The October improvement in the trade balance was much better than the average analyst forecast of a rise to 44.5 billion dollars from the initial September estimate of 44.0 billion dollars.
Exports, which President Barack Obama has pledged to double by 2015 to support the recovery, increased 3.2 percent from September, while imports fell 0.5 percent.
The politically sensitive gap with China shrank 8.3 percent, to 25.5 billion dollars. The United States has long accused China of keeping its yuan currency undervalued to gain an unfair advantage for its exports.
"Renewed export growth is especially welcome given the slow export growth seen throughout 2010, and it has been driven by the weakening of the dollar over the last several months," said Christopher Cornell at Moody's Analytics.
"A sharp increase in US exports to China explains a little less than half of the change, and is all the more notable since there was little change in US imports from China," he said.
According to Federal Reserve data, the dollar was worth 2.6 percent less in October than the month before compared with the currencies of US trading partners.
The United States saw big gains in exports of industrial supplies, which soared 8.0 percent, and automobiles, up 4.6 percent.
A broad decline in imports included industrial supplies, down 3.5 percent, while the only increases were in consumer goods and other goods. Automobile imports were essentially flat.
Also helping to narrow the US trade shortfall was a drop in petroleum imports to their lowest level in a year, at 19.1 billion dollars.
The price of imported crude rose to an average 74.18 dollars a barrel, but the volume of imported petroleum products fell 9.0 percent.
The Commerce Department reported record exports to China, the second-largest US trading partner, at 9.3 billion dollars, and to number-three Mexico, at 15.3 billion dollars.
Exports to the European Union and Japan rose to two-year highs.
The trade gap with the biggest US trade partner, Canada, rose 19 percent to 1.1 billion dollars.
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