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Tainted Afghan govt cost too high: analysts
AFP - Friday, October 9
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Tainted Afghan govt cost too high: analysts
KABUL (AFP) - – With presidential elections in shambles and the security situation worsening, faith in the Western-backed Afghan government is being sorely tested just as the US considers whether to boost troop numbers.
Allegations that the UN's special envoy to Afghanistan concealed evidence of fraud in the polls have added to concerns that the cost of supporting the discredited government of Hamid Karzai is becoming too high.
With no result in the August 20 elections, fraud allegations have gathered such momentum some analysts said even a run-off between the front-runners might not salvage any credibility for the process.
"This whole process is a failure," said Haroun Mir, of Afghanistan's Centre for Research and Policy Studies.
"I think the accusations of fraud have become so big that even if we go for a run-off I doubt we will be able to rescue any credibility for these elections."
"It's just too late, especially in terms of security, as you see we have had another suicide attack in the most secure place in Kabul, outside the Interior Ministry," he said, referring to Thursday's bombing which killed 17 people.
Afghans voted on August 20 but the elections have been overshadowed by fraud allegations and controversy over the UN's role in keeping the process clean.
Most allegations have been directed at incumbent Hamid Karzai, including findings by European Union observers that a quarter of all votes, or 1.5 million, were suspicious.
Karzai leads preliminary results with around 55 percent of the vote. He needs 50 percent plus one vote to be declared the winner. His main rival, Abdullah Abdullah, has around 28 percent.
Observers -- including sacked former deputy UN special envoy to Afghanistan, Peter Galbraith -- have said 30 percent of Karzai's votes were fraudulent.
The Washington Post on Wednesday cited what it said was confidential UN data showing huge discrepancies in the election, with vote counts in some provinces exceeding actual voters by more than 100,000. Related article: US may target Al-Qaeda over Taliban
The newspaper cited a spreadsheet it said was kept secret by Eide, who has been under pressure to release details of what Galbraith has described as "very extensive" voter fraud.
On Thursday Eide released a statement saying suggestions "that I asked for fraud to be covered up are patently false".
The Post report came as US President Barack Obama considers a request for another 40,000 troops for Afghanistan, while opinion polls in the West show falling support for the eight-year war.
The Taliban are gaining ground, and the 2009 death toll among foreign forces -- with more than 100,000 fighting the insurgency under US and NATO command -- is more than 400.
Thursday's suicide blast was the fifth audacious attack on Kabul since mid-August -- and the second on the Indian embassy, which the insurgents said was the target, since July 2008.
A violent campaign against the elections kept voter turnout below 40 percent -- even lower in southern Taliban strongholds -- and showed the government's inability to provide security, said Norine MacDonald, head of the International Council on Security and Development.
"President Obama sent more troops to the south to secure the election for Afghan people and all that's happened is American troops have died," she said.
"Unless we clean up the process and Karzai is re-elected in a free and fair process, all we really know is that we're dealing with a government that is either complicit or stood idly by as a fraud that benefited them was commited."
The Independent Election Commission (IEC) -- widely regarded as favouring Karzai -- on Thursday completed an audit of suspect ballots to determine the level of fraud and if a run-off is needed.
A final result is expected before the end of next week.
Western diplomats in Kabul said that until the IEC announces the winner, following an analysis of the audit data by the UN-backed Election Complaints Commission, Afghanistan's electoral process cannot be judged a failure.
Ambassadors of NATO countries had been "exasperated" by the fraud allegations against Karzai and the UN, said one diplomat, "but we need to reach a conclusion".
Said another, also on condition of anonymity: "There is a credibility crisis, for sure.
"But it is not possible to judge the credibility of the process until it is over, and everyone is so sick of it that they are likely to want to forget very quickly how painful it has been and just move on," he said.
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